Ramping up student refusal rates is wrong way to reduce net migration

Labor’s opaque crackdown on student visa approvals is an inefficient and unsustainable way to reduce net migration, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.

SINCE AROUND November 2025, the Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has ramped up offshore student refusal rates (reduced grant rates) in an effort to reduce net migration while pretending it was all about increasing integrity.

Combined with Education Minister Jason Clare’s discredited student National Planning Level (NPL), that is an inefficient, untargeted, opaque and ultimately unsustainable way to reduce net migration. The Government must do better.

During 2023-24, the Labor Government significantly tightened the student visa policies it inherited from the Coalition. As a result, offshore student applications in 2024 fell 38% below 2023 levels. That downwards trend continued for most of 2025.

In mid-2024, however, Clare announced a student National Planning Level of 270,000 for calendar year 2025. That was entirely inconsistent with Treasury’s forecast for net migration so I called it out on this masthead. There was no way net migration was going to fall to the levels Treasury was forecasting if the student NPL was also delivered.

Government twists student visa policy to chase migration targets

The Government says it supports international education, but its shifting visa policies and soaring fees tell a very different story.

In mid-2025, Clare increased the student NPL for 2026 to 295,000, yet the Treasury was still forecasting a major fall in net migration. I privately raised this with a relevant minister who told me not to worry, as net migration is just a statistical measure (as if it were of no importance).

Understandably, international education providers were overjoyed by the larger NPL and set about increasing student recruitment.

After the mid-2025 Clare announcement, offshore student applications rebounded. From September 2025 and February 2026, offshore student applications were 12% higher than for the same period in 2025-26. The rebound at last had the Government worried in terms of the implications for net migration. It responded with a massive reduction in the grant rate.

The July 2026 grant rate of 59.4% is truly astonishing. Nothing like that appears in the published records. The grant rate in most other July months is around 85% or higher. It appears to reflect a degree of panic.

The reduced grant rates affect mainly South Asian nations, plus the Philippines and Colombia with a particular focus on the vocational education and training (VET) and English language intensive course for overseas students (ELICOS) sectors, as well as lower tier universities. Upper tier universities and applications from China have been largely unaffected.

Bizarrely, Clare announced earlier this year that the student NPL for 2027 would be maintained at 295,000 but suggested neither the 2026 nor 2027 NPLs would be delivered. It seems Clare does not want to reduce the student NPL for fear of upsetting the Industry while Assistant International Education Minister Julian Hill drives down the offshore student grant rate to help deliver the Prime Minister’s promise to get net migration down to 225,000.

While the Industry was happy with the student NPL being maintained for 2027, it is much more wary and has not gone out on a similar recruitment drive, knowing the massive reduction in the grant rate. Offshore student applications are now falling.

The Government will be happy with that but driving down the grant rate based on highly subjective criteria is a very poor way to reduce net migration. It needs to come clean with the Industry and find a more objective, better targeted and transparent way to reduce net migration, including from overseas students.

Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul or Bluesky @abulrizvi.bsky.social.