Barnaby Joyce's treacherous attempts to repeal the net-zero target dismiss realities that future generations face. Aatif Syed writes.
WITH ACTION ON climate change featuring as one of the top issues for young voters at each of the last two federal elections, the Coalition's internal climate wars are perplexing. In light of the election results, they would do well to face the facts on climate change. Starting with the scientific reality that global temperatures are rising.
The scientific reality: global temperatures are rising
Over the last century, with the increase of human activity, in the post-Industrial Revolution, global temperatures have risen by approximately 0.85°C. This has resulted in an enhanced greenhouse effect, where too much heat is being trapped, causing temperatures to continue to rise.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report states that global air temperatures are now 1.09°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, and the rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993. The Australian reality is that our temperatures have already risen by 1.51°C from 1910 to 2023; the same number that the United Nations' Paris Agreement committed its signatories to decrease global average temperatures by.
Global warming has not just occurred by coincidence or as part of some natural cycle. The science is clear, and its impacts are leading to extreme weather patterns that are disrupting human livelihoods, key infrastructure, driving displacement and emerging as a key national security threat. We only need to look to the Black Summer Fires, Northern NSW floods, and Tropical Cyclones Alfred and Jasper for pertinent examples.
Net zero isn’t a radical concept – it’s the bare minimum
The fundamental concept of net zero is the balancing of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere by the removal of emissions out of the atmosphere. IPCC reports continually stress that the damage climate change is doing could become so irreversible that eventually Earth is unable to sustain conditions for human life and other species, particularly if global temperatures exceed 2°C. Given that Australia has already warmed 1.5°C, limiting further increases to our temperatures is critical for the well-being, culture and economic certainty of future generations.
The pursuit of net-zero commitments pledged through the Paris Agreement has been accepted by over 140 countries, including our allies in the UK, European Union and our largest trading partner, China. The scale of the challenge is such that current modelling shows Labor’s legislated targets of 43 per cent emissions cut by 2030 will fall well short of the desired 68 per cent reduction that environmental science demands.
To entertain the idea of reversing our environmental commitments is not only unprecedented in an OECD nation, but a radical idea in isolating us diplomatically and economically at a time when global partnerships are key to coordinating climate resilience, energy transition, and trade alignment. The Coalition’s push to repeal net zero altogether moves us backwards in a decade where urgency is non-negotiable.
Climate change impacts regional and rural communities disproportionately
Our rural and regional communities are on the frontline of climate change impacts, with extreme weather events such as bushfires and floods over the last decade disproportionately impacting their livelihoods. Whilst regional and rural communities are diverse in their characteristics, agriculture remains a key economic foundation for their prosperity. The Climate Council of Australia has stated that widespread impacts to this sector may include decreased crop growth capacity and faltering productivity gains.
It should also be stated that the impacts of simultaneous extreme weather events in regional communities are such that many agricultural businesses are at a tipping point, having to use their savings or take on debt to stay afloat. Long-term modelling predicts permanent shifts such as decreased water availability in areas around the Murray-Darling Basin and a reduction in the value of cattle and wool sectors, posing a real threat to the livelihoods of communities in this region.
National's MP Barnaby Joyce claims to represent rural and regional communities while simultaneously opposing policies that would shield them from potential collapse. To continue with this rhetoric is to actively fight against the prosperity of his political base. It is about time he comes clean with his constituents.
Health impacts of climate change are intensifying, with no real plan
The Australian Medical Association has stated that climate change is becoming a health emergency, a framing missed in discourse. Research has shown that the consequences of alterations to airborne pollutants as a result of carbon emissions would have significant impacts on the presentation of respiratory illness. Moreover, alteration of ecosystems due to global warming has resulted in the emergence and increased incidence of vector-borne diseases such as Dengue in Far North Queensland, along with other arboviruses.
These widespread impacts on health disproportionately affect youth and those with lower incomes. Currently, no party opposing net zero has presented a serious public health strategy to deal with these projected impacts. Any failure to take proportionate action to mitigate these issues risks depriving future generations of their basic human right to health.
Climate change is a national security threat
Climate change has human security implications that warrant serious consideration. Research has shown that climate change undermines our national security by disrupting critical assets close to the coastline, risking the supply of energy production and creating difficulties in the maintenance of key transport infrastructure.
In addition, climate change poses a serious threat to our defence capabilities, with manpower and resources of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) being stretched thin when responding to increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters predicted in the coming decades.
Outside of Australia, climate change can increase the risk of political instability amongst our partner countries in the Asia-Pacific region. It has the potential to constrain important supply chains and thus impact trade relations.
Failure to commit to bold climate policy could result in a loss of soft power and geopolitical influence, particularly in climate-insecure countries within Southeast Asia and the Pacific regions.
If the Coalition wants to claim that they care about our national security, young Australians and rural communities, then the thought of repealing net zero is not just a policy debate; it’s an active betrayal of the communities they claim to represent.
The facts are clear and the future is watching.
Aatif Syed is a medical and global public health student with a keen interest in climate change science.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License
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