The Coalition marriage breakup: A nuclear meltdown

The Liberal and National parties are "on a break", but what does this mean for Australia's polity? Managing editor Michelle Pini analyses the split.

AFTER ALMOST FOUR DECADES without an official skirmish, the Liberal National Coalition has split up.

And, no matter how much Nationals' Leader David Littleproud goes on about “principle” and Liberal Party Leader Sussan Ley splashes around clichés of “doors remaining open” and “everything being on the table”, or how much the nuclear affair has influenced the breakup, the truth is it’s only ever been a marriage of convenience, and it’s just not as convenient, right now.

At least not for the Nationals, who, following the recent electoral annihilation of the Liberals, now believe they should be afforded even greater power and influence, despite their minor parliamentary representation of 15 seats not quite hitting the ten per cent mark.

THE SECRET AGREEMENT

Of course, the Nationals side of the Coalition equation has always enjoyed way more spoils than the narrow portion of the electorate it actually represents. The Coalition agreement, of which the details have always remained secret, has historically given the Nationals access to plum front bench portfolios, including the deputy prime-ministership when in government.

Leying down the new order with Sussan: A Liberal Party fictional tale

A woman has been voted leader of the Liberal Party, but will Sussan Ley listen to voters and "modernise" the party, and is her appointment a breakthrough for women?

And in opposition, the marriage has provided sizable nest eggs with shadow portfolios and commensurate spoils for the likes of MPs like Barnaby “Planter Box” Joyce, Bridget “Sport Rorts” McKenzie and Matt “Coal Face” Canavan, among other underwhelming Nats parliamentarians.

While the relationship has certainly not been all smooth sailing, except for a couple of brief trial separations (notably, back in 1987 and 1972), the marriage between the conservative Liberal Party and the even more conservative Nationals has continued more or less intact since 1949.

This means little to most Australians today, of course, since the majority of voters were born after the Coalition parties last renewed their vows.

FAMILY MEMBERS DISCUSS THE BREAKUP

Nonetheless, “great grandad” John Howard was once again wheeled out to pass comment and provide the separated parties with his sage advice, which went something like: “The longer they stay apart, the harder it will be to kiss and make up”.

Judging by the sombre mood accompanying the announcement of the split, however, it would appear some serious couples counselling will be needed for that to happen.

Meanwhile, Deputy Nationals Leader Kevin Hogan has already enjoyed more media air time in the last couple of days than in the entire 12 years he has been an MP.

Kevin shared his hope that Mum and Dad will get back together “sooner rather than later” and assured everyone that:

"We love Jacinta."

IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES

The irreconcilable differences, at least the "principles" as stated by David Littleproud, are the Nats' policies on:

a domestic nuclear power industry [pronounced nu-ce-lar];
supermarket divestiture powers;
a $20 billion regional Australia future fund; and
changes to regional telephone service obligations.

However, the two unspoken clinchers are more likely to be the Nationals' demanding more shadow ministry prizes, and their desire to cross the floor and vote against their own side if they feel like it.

The Liberal Party, however, has insisted that voting unity would need to be maintained in any Coalition agreement.

Accusations and denials (some via texts) are already flying around from both sides, which is usually a giveaway.

THE SEPARATION

Shadow portfolios for 30 Albanese Cabinet roles will need to be covered by just 28 available Liberal Party Opposition Members. Will Airtasker be enlisted to assist? Maybe Scott Morrison will be called upon to fill at least five of them.

From the Labor Government’s perspective, not much will change whether the Coalition's separation is temporary or develops into a bitter divorce, since the conservatives will likely vote together on all matters of “principle”, anyway.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers labelled the split a "nuclear meltdown", while Prime Minister Albanese said words to the effect of Let 'em go for it.

SINGLE PARENTS

Now that all bets are off, perhaps details of the mysterious deal between the Liberals and the Nationals may finally be leaked.

The Coalition split might also provide an opportunity for the Liberal Party to regroup and any well-hidden "moderates" that may still exist to emerge, unencumbered by the extreme Far-Right views of their Nationals colleagues, at least for now.

However, while many have opined that the Liberals and Nationals now have no hope of forming government, they can certainly form a minority government as separate entities and, in fact, have done so on several occasions, prior to the 1949 establishment of the Coalition partnership.

If the Liberals get their act together and move their policy offering into this century, they may become a credible contender by the next election, and may even contribute to a more progressive polity for our times.

For now, there is little doubt that the outdated Coalition offering – shaped as it was by mining billionaire donors and media barons, and led by the Far-Right faction of the Liberal Party and their National Party partners – which the Coalition took to the 2025 Election, was roundly rejected by contemporary Australia and needs to change.

This is not the whole story! Subscribe HERE to read this article in full and receive regular updates directly to your inbox, from as little as $1.15 per week.

Follow managing editor Michelle Pini on Bluesky @michellepini.bsky.social and Independent Australia on Bluesky @independentaus.bsky.social, X/Twitter @independentaus and Facebook HERE.