Clear failures, no fixes: The Government's asylum blind spot

Despite a dramatic shift in who is seeking asylum in Australia, the Government remains unwilling to fix the systems it knows are failing, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.

WHILE THE BACKLOG of asylum seekers at the Administrative Review Tribunal (A.R.T.) boomed from around 2016, it has now both stabilised (mainly due to additional funding for the AAT/A.R.T. allocated in 2023) at around 43,000 and its composition has changed markedly.

From 2016, asylum seekers appealing their refusal decisions boomed (see Chart 1).

That boom was driven by a massive labour trafficking scam out of Malaysia and China, appealing their Department of Home Affairs (DHA) refusals to the A.R.T. (see Chart 2).

In 2017-18, around 67% of primary asylum applications were from Malaysian and Chinese nationals. With international borders re-opening in early 2022, the labour trafficking scam appears not to have resumed. Primary asylum applications from Malaysian and Chinese nationals fell to around 14% in 2022-23 and are likely to have fallen to just over 10% in 2023-24 (for some reason, DHA has not published the full year data for 2023-24).

That has enabled the A.R.T. to gradually reduce the backlog of asylum cases from these two nationalities. Asylum applications on hand at the A.R.T. from Malaysian nationals have fallen from around 15,000 in mid-2022 to less than 6,000 in May 2025. Those from Chinese nationals have fallen from over 9,000 in September 2023 to just over 8,000 in May 2025.

New primary and appeal asylum applications from Chinese nationals remain strong but are not at the levels pre-pandemic.

Asylum applications on hand at the A.R.T. from Thai, Bangladeshi and Pakistani nationals have remained relatively stable.

Asylum seekers refused at both primary and appeal stages exceeds 50,000

The number of asylum seekers refused at both the primary and appeal stages and still not departed exceeded 50,000 at end March 2025.

The big increases have come from:

• India rising from 658 in June 2020 to 5,711 in May 2025;
• Vietnam rising from 1,510 in June 2020 to 4,982 in May 2025;
• Indonesia rising from 436 in June 2020 to 2,805 in May 2025; and
• the Philippines rising from 317 in June 2021 to 2,144 in May 2025.

Nationals from all four of these nations have very low primary approval rates and very low set-aside rates at the A.R.T.

But it is asylum applications on hand at the A.R.T. from Pacific nationals and in particular nations providing labour under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (P.A.L.M.) scheme that have grown most dramatically (see Chart 3).

Asylum seekers from these nations also have very low primary approval rates and very low set aside rates at the AAT/A.R.T. They are largely running away from exploitative employers in Australia and seeking to extend their stay by abusing the asylum system. They really have no choice, as their chances of securing a permanent visa through the lottery-based Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) are negligible.

They are also facing very high death and injury rates, while in Australia, due to accidents both in the workplace and away from the workplace.

Both the P.A.L.M. visa and the PEV desperately need a serious redesign. But there appears to be little inclination in the Government to pursue this.

Head in the sand approach to P.A.L.M. visa continues

The agriculture visa for Pacific Island nationals has been a dismal failure from the beginning, resulting in exploitation bordering on slavery and even fatalities, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.

Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License

Support independent journalism Subscribe to IA.

Related Articles

• Asylum seekers refused at both primary and appeal stages exceeds 50,000
• Net migration in 2024-25 may exceed Treasury forecast by 45,000
• Appeals against onshore student visa refusals boom in March
• Both major parties face dilemmas with 2025-26 migration program
• Zero chance for Dutton to achieve net migration target