Australia’s migration numbers defy both camps

Analysts expect new ABS data to show net migration holding steady around 315,000, defying claims of both a rebound and a collapse. Dr Abul Rizvi reports.

AFTER MUCH embarrassment over allegations that net migration in 2024-25 would be over 450,000 and in 2025 over 550,000, anti-immigration advocates continue to look for evidence that net migration is accelerating, while pro-immigration advocates argue it is still plunging. It is highly likely that both are wrong.

Net migration has undoubtedly fallen significantly since the surge in 2022-23, when it hit well over 500,000. In the 12 months to March 2025, it was 315,000. Anti-immigration advocates continue to argue that the surge in Net Permanent and Long-Term (NPLT) movements in 2025, together with a derived estimate of net migration data from the National Accounts, confirms that net migration is rebounding sharply.

On 18 December 2025, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the preliminary estimates for net migration in the June quarter of 2025, as well as revisions to previous quarters. That will provide net migration for the whole of 2024-25.

While the NPLT data for the June quarter of 2025 indicates net migration in the June quarter of 2025 may be higher than the 55,327 for the June quarter of 2024, other data suggest that may not be the case.

Three things will have happened in the June quarter of 2025:

A surge in grants of permanent resident visas, including to temporary entrants in Australia, to meet the permanent Migration Program planning level.
An increase in both short-term and long-term departures as students complete the first semester. The short-term departures will not reduce net migration as they usually return before the start of the second semester.
A decrease in the stock of temporary entrants in Australia.

The decrease in the stock of temporary entrants in the June quarter was largely driven by a fall in visitor, student and working holidaymaker visa holders. The fall in working holidaymakers may have contributed to a rise in net migration departures, while the fall in visitors and students may not have impacted net migration significantly.

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There was also a fall of around:

10,000 in bridging visa holders, but this may have largely been temporary entrants securing permanent visas; and
7,000 in other temporary entrants (employment) who are likely to have moved to other temporary visas.

There were increases in the stock of:

New Zealand citizens (up around 16,000);
Temporary graduates (up around 7,000); and
Skilled Temporary entrants (up around 15,000). This would have been despite a material portion of these securing permanent residents.

The combined effect of these changes on net migration is difficult to estimate, but it is highly unlikely that net migration in the June quarter of 2025 would have been as high as the NPLT of 91,660. It may be higher than the net migration outcome for the June quarter 2024 of 55,327, but not significantly higher.

If that is the case, net migration for 2024-25 may be around 315,000 (perhaps slightly higher or lower). That means net migration in the June quarter of 2025 was neither “accelerating sharply” nor “plunging”.

We will find out on 18 December.

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Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.