Institute of Public Affairs continues to mislead on immigration levels

Murdoch media and the IPA are again distorting migration data to fuel anti-immigration fearmongering ahead of upcoming rallies. Dr Abul Rizvi reports.

THE INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS (IPA), aided and abetted by the Murdoch press, has again misled the public on immigration levels by trying to portray Net Permanent and Long-term (NPLT) movements for the nine months to end September 2025 (415,760) as being virtually the same as net migration over the same period.

This is likely targeting the next set of anti-immigration rallies due later this month, as well as the ongoing tensions in the Coalition on immigration policy. The IPA is likely a strong supporter of Andrew Hastie’s dog whistling on immigration.

Right at the end of its press release, where the reader is unlikely to go, the IPA acknowledges:

‘While “net permanent and long-term arrivals” and “net overseas migration” differ slightly, they remain closely related measures.’

The IPA would have included this after being caught out previously misusing NPLT data.

Media misuses migration statistics to promote anti-immigration rallies

Media outlets have been called out by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for inflating their data ahead of anti-immigration 'March for Australia' rallies.

But the key message from the author of the IPA press release, Daniel Wild, is that:

‘Elevated net permanent and long-term arrival numbers have now become a new norm, with the indicator of migration patterns showing the Federal Government’s “Big Australia” policy is well and truly in full flight.’

The Murdoch press regurgitated the IPA press release with zero fact-checking and added the following heading:

‘Australia records highest net migrant arrivals ever, experts warn of unsustainable growth.’

Rather than such misleading statements, the IPA and the Murdoch press could have pointed out any or all of the following:

the very clear warning from the ABS to be very careful with how NPLT movement data is used;
in the March quarter of 2025, net migration was almost 78,000 (or over 40 per cent) less than NPLT for the March quarter, yet the IPA learned nothing from that;
net migration has fallen over 40 per cent since the peak in 2022-23 of over 500,000 to currently around 315,000 — the lowest level in three years; and
the surge in net migration in 2022-23 was driven largely by Coalition Government policies for overseas students that the Labor Government belatedly tightened (but is now again loosening).

But these points do not fit the IPA ideology and its desire to stoke anti-immigration fearmongering ahead of the next round of anti-immigration rallies later this month. Those are to be headlined by British anti-immigration agitator Tommy Robinson, who is to speak online (but no longer Nationals anti-immigration Senator Jacinta Price).

There are many important immigration policy issues the IPA could be focusing on including the Labor Government backing out of its commitment to long-term immigration planning; the strong likelihood Treasury’s net migration forecasts for 2025-26 and 2026-27 won’t be delivered; the rising pressure to increase the permanent migration program, particularly from partners of Australians as well as employer sponsored applications; and the massive onshore visa application backlogs.

But the IPA prefers to generate sensationalist headlines to stoke the anti-immigration rallies and encourage anti-immigration politicians also to misuse NPLT data.

Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.