News editors must choose between majority or own selfish interests

With an election imminent, the differences between the major political parties have seldom been clearer, as Alan Austin reports.

SOMETHING UNUSUAL may happen next month when the newspapers endorse their preferred political party for the Federal Election. Traditionally, decisions have been based on perceived economic management, having assessed past performances and future prospects. Nearly always, the coronation goes to the Coalition.

The editors have seldom had a valid case, of course, but they have cobbled together plausible arguments, at least for their conservative core readers.

It seems unlikely, however, that they can do that this year, given the manifest differences in recent outcomes between the two sides. The stark reality is that on virtually every significant variable, Labor has delivered demonstrably better outcomes.

Past performance backs Labor as better economic bet

Over time, academic, popular, local and foreign journal analyses show that Labor governments have managed Australia’s economy far better than the Coalition.

Comparison of PEFOs 2022 and 2025

Last week’s pre-election economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO) is the latest document to prove this. PEFOs are well worth examining, as they are prepared by the politically neutral secretaries of Treasury and the Finance Department.

Comparing the 2022 and 2025 PEFOs, the differences are notable:

1. Deficits for the four years 2022-23 to 2025-26 were forecast under Coalition settings to be $224.4 billion. After Labor’s budgets took effect, deficits totalled $31.9 billion.

2. In 2022, the department heads forecast gross debt to reach $1,000 billion under Coalition policies in 2023-24. After the change of government, that did not happen. Debt is now forecast to hit the trillion sometime in 2025-26. There is a chance this will not happen either, should iron ore prices recover or global conditions improve significantly.The chart below shows net debt comparisons so far.

3. Gross debt added by the Coalition from June 2022 to June 2026 was forecast to be $263 billion. Under Labor, that added debt is now estimated at $126.7 billion.

4. The gross debt target at June 2026 was $1,169 billion under the Coalition. It is now $1,022 billion under Labor — $147 billion lower.

5. The Coalition’s interest payable on the debt for the three years to 2025-26 was to have been $57.3 billion. Labor cut this to $45.7 billion.

History reversed

The opposite happened in 2013 after the government changed from Labor to the Coalition. The 2013 PEFO set out the forward estimates for three years under Labor’s settings. We then saw a rapid reversal of fortunes, with all outcomes worse under the Coalition. Much worse.

The independent public servants estimated deficits for the four years 2014 to 2017 would total $54.6 billion had Labor continued after 2013. After the Coalition won, actual deficits totalled $159.1 billion.

Debt to be added from June 2013 to June 2017 was forecast in 2013 at $112.6 billion under Labor. The Coalition blew that out to $243.6 billion.

The boffins confidently expected Labor’s policies would return the budget to surplus in 2016-17. So, when did the Coalition achieve this? Never.

The Coalition cannot argue that times were easier for Labor than for the Coalition. As we saw here last week, the boom following the Global Financial Crisis enabled all well-managed economies to generate strong budget surpluses in each of the five years 2015 to 2019, pre-COVID.

Past performance backs Labor as better economic bet

Over time, academic, popular, local and foreign journal analyses show that Labor governments have managed Australia’s economy far better than the Coalition.

Australia was one of the sorry losers that did not generate a single surplus in that period of worldwide growth and prosperity.

That this was due to sheer incompetence was confirmed when the first two Coalition prime ministers were sacked as the economy deteriorated — by their own side.

Updates on ever-rising standards of living

Evidence that the majority of Australians are now enjoying a strong consumer recovery keeps coming. The Bureau of Statistics has reported that Australian residents in February took a thumping 923,360 overseas flights, an all-time record for any February (which always records fewer than in December and January).

The total for the three months December to February comes to a record 3,291,250, which is 13.2% higher than the same period last year and 45.2% higher than 2023.

Jobs outcomes for March, as reported by the Stats Bureau last Thursday, continue to be close to the best-ever. The unemployment rate of 4.05% extends the streak of months below 4.25% to 40, the longest since the Whitlam years.

Only four other OECD members have managed this: Switzerland, Japan, Mexico and South Korea.

Jobless Australians have been fewer than 650,000 for 40 months, another impressive milestone. Remember this exceeded 900,000 seven times under the Coalition and clicked over one million in July 2020, during the COVID downturn.

Job participation is near-perfect, 66.8%. The employment-to-population ratio remains at 64.1%, just under December’s all-time high.

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Editorial endorsements last time

Most daily and weekly newspapers urged a return of the Coalition in 2022, as they did in 2019. These included the Australian Financial Review, The Advertiser, The West Australian, The Australian, Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun, Courier Mail and The Sunday Mail.

Labor was backed by The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, NT News, The Canberra Times and The Saturday Paper.

The Guardian Australia supported Labor, the Greens and the prominent Independents.

The NT News was the only Murdoch newspaper to back Labor, despite it being clearly the better choice. Whether this was an independent decision or ordered by News Corp HQ to make the sordid outfit appear less partisan, we don’t know.

We do know, however, that all newsroom criticisms of Labor’s economic management this year – cost of living, excessive spending, high interest rates, housing crisis – fail under scrutiny. The PEFOs bolster this.

Hence, the editors will support Labor and the Independents if they want what is best for the majority. But do they?