Our Prime Minister often displays ineptitude towards many things, including how to deal with foreign matters, writes Bruce Haigh.
WHATEVER ELSE might be said about Scott Morrison, he is not astute. He is out of his depth in a number of policy areas, particularly foreign policy. This he shares with Donald Trump and Boris Johnson.
There are substantial and complex international issues, none more so than the crises of climate change; there is also the confected confrontation with Iran, China seeking to secure regional power and control trade routes, Russia elbowing to be a world player, U.S. fearing a loss of power and influence, the prospect hastened by its erratic leadership, Britain’s Brexit conundrum and the crisis of refugees, food and water shortages.
Morrison and his advisors appear to have scant understanding of the Middle East. His decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel flew in the face of years of Australian diplomacy which sought a balance between Israel and Palestine. It was made in response to a similar decision by Trump, which was equally ill-advised. He has not condemned Saudi Arabia for its cruel bombing attacks in the Yemen, the abuse of Saudi women within the Kingdom and the state murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
He has demonstrated no understanding of the issues surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty governing the Iranian production of enriched Uranium. Not for him, the sophistication and understanding of the European signatories to the treaty appalled at Trump's precipitate action. Instead, he seems drawn to Trump's dangerous bellicosity.
Scott Morrison backs Donald Trump in getting tough on Iran— Paul Barratt (@phbarratt) June 28, 2019
During a real crisis - US Embassy hostages, 1979-80 - Australia remained at arm’s length (nothing to do with us) but now we are craven forelock-tuggers.
Foreign policy for sale. https://t.co/0uE4Z1y8RJ
The Trump administration push against Iran is led by an eager and hawkish White House Security Advisor, John Bolton. The U.S. appears keen to have a crack at Iran. A short, sharp military action to teach Iran a lesson, to make it understand its place in the region and to demonstrate American military and political dominance.
In light of Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, such thinking demonstrates that America has learnt nothing. Entry into the war in Vietnam was engineered through a contrived attack against an American destroyer in the Gulf of Tonkin by a North Vietnamese patrol boat. Except it never happened.
The incident was made up. America is attempting the same in the Strait of Hormuz. Claims that the Iranians have detonated explosive devices against foreign oil tankers are patently nonsense. Why would the Iranians attack a Japanese tanker while the Japanese Prime Minister was in Tehran conducting trade talks? It makes no sense. More likely the tankers have been hit by drones with explosives devices fired from the UAE, who along with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel and the United States wish to see Iranian influence diminished.
Morrison has not ruled out joining the U.S. in any conflict they might engineer. That would be a mistake, to say the least. Trump says he was ready to bomb nuclear installations in Iran but pulled back because of the thought of injuring or killing 150 or so Iranian workers. Rubbish. Trump has no empathy. More likely what happened was that U.S. intelligence operatives spelt out to him the extent of Iranian retaliation.
The UAE would be targeted, bringing to a halt the Emirates airline and perhaps prevent them from operating for some time. American and other expats and workers in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, Dammam and Kuwait would be killed along with many local nationals and oil installations damaged. And that remains the case. Any small attack would quickly escalate into a major confrontation, one in which China and the Soviet Union would offer help to the Iranians.
Tel me again about that independent Australian foreign policy:— Tom Chodor (@TomChodor) June 27, 2019
“Scott Morrison won’t rule out Australian involvement in a potential military conflict between the United States and Iran, saying he would deal with any request “seriously and on its merits” https://t.co/GPs1TPPaKN
Morrison, along with advisors and public servants, hang their hats on the United States coming to Australia’s assistance in the event we get attacked, presumably by the Chinese or Indonesians. The U.S. will not. Surely, we have learnt by now that America only protects its own interests. If our interests coincide, so be it, but then if that’s the case, what is the need for a one-way alliance?
Morrison and the Australian Government grapple with what they see as the difficulty of “balancing” the relationship between the U.S. and China. Both countries need to be pushed back. China over its surveillance and attempts to control key members of the Australian/Chinese community, its hacking of Australian academic institutions, intelligence and government organisations and its purchase of strategic assets such as water and infrastructure. America needs to be pushed back over its assumption that Australia is compliant to the point of complacency, from Pine Gap to the basing of marines in Darwin to lazy statements of support for whatever the U.S. might contemplate, including war against Iran.
China is asserting control over the South China Sea; America is resisting and exhorting countries in the region to join it with mixed success. Australia has been active in patrolling but has avoided confrontation. Singapore has just signed a defence agreement with China. Indonesia may follow.
Very good piece from my colleague @KelseyMunro on Scott Morrison's first foreign policy speech since the election, indicating the likely direction of the PM's efforts in Osaka @G20org https://t.co/7T9OxdUh3R, via @LowyInstitute— Alex Oliver (@AlexKOliver) June 26, 2019
China is active in the South Pacific, building infrastructure on island states, some which have a defence application. They discuss the climate crises with island leaders. There is no debate in China about the crises, they accept climate change as a reality. Pacific leaders like what they hear. Morrison and LNP-appointed intelligence chiefs fear what they term the encroachment of China into our region. Our region, for heaven's sake.
We have studiously avoided the Pacific states for decades, we have ignored their pleas on climate change, we have shortchanged them on aid, we have patronised and talked down to them and in the case of PNG, we have used them for our own political ends. It’s a bit late, the horse has bolted.
Last year, Morrison announced a mixed bag of $3 billion in aid for the Pacific and a further $250 million was announced this year in aid to the Solomon Islands. Australia has thrown down the gauntlet in a bidding war for the hearts and minds of Pacific Islanders that it has no hope of winning. China can outbid Australia and it will do so.
A better strategy might be to enter into partnership arrangements with China to further the needs of the people in the region. But that is not the game. If Australia wants to regain lost influence and respect, it needs to listen and respond to local leaders and opinion. However, the chances are not good. If it can’t do that at home with the Indigenous population, how can it do it overseas? White superiority writ large.
Morrison will not lead on climate, nor on water. Morrison will stick to the narrow precepts of his church and the IPA.Bruce Haigh is a retired Australian diplomat and political commentator. You can follow Bruce on Twitter @bruce_haigh.
Will Australian govt stand up to #Pompeo, whose religious beliefs may be influencing US foreign policy? Does PM Scott Morrison share Pompeo's beliefs? #ADF #auspol #4corners #QandA #insiders #TheDrum #rnbreakfast #SaturdayExtra #LNLhttps://t.co/JSvudUTRur— Susan Dirgham (@SusanDirgham) June 13, 2019
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