Chalmers on track to join Keating and Swan as world’s best treasurer

The latest economic news confirms the Albanese Government is responding to uncertain times remarkably well, as Alan Austin reports.

THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY achieved by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers in their first two years has impressed observers aware of history.

In the early 1980s, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating increased the number of Australians with jobs by 345,000 in their first two years — a surge of 5.5%. Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan battled the global financial crisis (GFC) which whacked the world in their first two years, but still managed to add 289,000 more jobs, a lift of 2.7% — clearly the best outcome in the world at that difficult time.

Jobs growth was among the outcomes which led their peers worldwide to vote Keating and Swan as finance ministers of the year in 1984 and 2011 respectively.

Jim Chalmers now puts them both in the shade, having found jobs for an extra 879,000 Australians in his first two years, a rise of 6.5%. See blue chart, below.

This graph, showing data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), does not in itself prove who were the best, worst and middling PMs. Keating battled the early '90s global recession, Rudd and Gillard dealt with the GFC and Morrison grappled with the COVID pandemic. But it does undermine the constant media narrative that Labor can’t manage the economy.

Recognition denied on employment

The Labor Government is receiving no accolades for its sound outcomes on jobs. There are two reasons for this. The most obvious is that all mainstream newsrooms are hell-bent on destroying Labor’s reputation and returning the Coalition at the next election so the rich corporations can get richer.

The second is that while the number of Australians employed has surged more than at any time since records have been kept, the official unemployment rate has edged upwards in five of this year’s seven monthly reports.

This is not because the jobs market is weakening, but because the workforce is expanding at a phenomenal rate due to record net immigration.

In the 26 months since the 2022 Election, more than one million workers have been added to the workforce, by far the greatest number and the highest percentage increase since records have been kept. Most of those new entrants have found jobs. But not all.

Reversing the Coalition’s destructive waste

Close examination of the latest ABS jobs reports is instructive.

Underemployment is the measure of workers keen to work more hours than they can get. This blew out disastrously soon after the Coalition won the 2013 Election. Labor is getting this back under control. See pink chart, below.

Jim Chalmers got the average underemployment ratio below 6.4% in the financial year to June 2023. The last treasurers to achieve this were Wayne Swan in 2008 and Paul Keating in 1991. Surprise!

The underutilisation rate measures unemployment and underemployment combined. The last two years have recorded this at 9.7% and 10.4%, both well below every year of the previous failed regime. The average under the Coalition was 14.1%.

Long term unemployed

The number of Australians suffering the stress of being unemployed for a year or more, as well as the poverty, also expanded alarmingly under the Coalition. Labor has slashed this also, although there’s still a way to go. See yellow chart, below.

Time wasted looking for a job

The average job search duration was below 37 weeks for the entire six years Wayne Swan was Treasurer, reaching the all-time low of 31.5 in the year to June 2009. This blew out through the dismal Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison years, peaking at 48.6 in 2019.

Chalmers cut the average duration to 43.5 weeks in the year to June. Again, that’s still high, but the trend is encouraging.

Workers get real wage rises

Wages rose by 4.1% over the year to June, significantly higher than the inflation rate of 3.8%. This is the third consecutive quarter where wages have risen more than inflation. That follows ten quarters of declining real wages.

Hence, virtually all indicators confirm that Treasurer Chalmers has set the levers where they should be, as did Keating and Swan before him.

As it happens, Euromoney no longer makes its annual award for World’s Best Treasurer. If they did, and if they compared economic recoveries worldwide, Australia would be in with an excellent chance.

Alan Austin is an Independent Australia columnist and freelance journalist. You can follow him on Twitter @alanaustin001.