Disruption without a plan: Trump’s chaos could trigger global change

Crises do not need to be rational to be transformative — they simply need to remove the option of inaction, writes Paul Budde.

FOR YEARS, we have known the system wasn’t working.

Climate risks were escalating. Supply chains were fragile. Big Tech was consolidating power. Social media was distorting public debate. Yet despite repeated warnings, meaningful reform remained elusive.

History shows why. Systems rarely change by design — they change under pressure.

That raises an uncomfortable question: is Donald Trump's disruptive behaviour forcing the kind of crisis needed to trigger a reset?

This is certainly not an endorsement. Much of what we are seeing is destabilising and, at times, corrosive to democratic institutions. But crises do not need to be rational to be transformative — they simply need to remove the option of inaction.

Trump is the most dangerous man in the world

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The end of the illusion

Trump’s tariff wars have done more than disrupt trade. They have exposed how fragile the global economic system really is.

The “rules-based order” was always more unstable than it appeared. Trump has accelerated that realisation.

Countries are now reassessing dependencies that were once taken for granted. Supply chains are shifting from efficiency to resilience. Trade is diversifying. Strategic industries are moving closer to home.

These are not new ideas. But they are now being implemented under pressure.

Energy shocks are doing what policy could not

Energy is where the crisis is driving the clearest change.

Climate policy has struggled for decades to deliver the required transition. Energy shocks work differently. When supply becomes unreliable or unaffordable, behaviour changes quickly.

We are now seeing that shift.

Volatility in fossil fuel markets is accelerating investment in solar, batteries and electrification. What policy could not achieve incrementally is now being forced through disruption.

Recent analysis shows that supply shocks are driving rapid adoption of clean technologies across multiple regions. In some cases, countries are leapfrogging directly into decentralised systems.

This also connects to another pressure point: the rising energy demand of AI and data centres. As I have argued previously, the digital economy is becoming an energy problem. What we are now seeing is both sides of that system adjusting at once.

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Digital sovereignty becomes strategic

The most significant shift may be unfolding in the digital domain.

For years, reliance on U.S.-based platforms – cloud, AI and social media – has been recognised as a strategic vulnerability. But replacing these systems was seen as too complex and costly.

That is now changing.

Trump’s coercive approach to trade and regulation, combined with broader political uncertainty, is forcing countries to reconsider their dependence on American tech ecosystems.

Digital sovereignty is moving from policy debate to practical necessity.

Governments are exploring alternatives, including local cloud infrastructure, open-source platforms, and regional systems. These transitions are difficult, but increasingly unavoidable.

Technology writer Cory Doctorow has described this as the emergence of a “post-American internet” — not as a planned transition but as an unintended consequence of geopolitical disruption.

Unintended consequences — and limits

Disruptive policies often produce unexpected outcomes.

Restrictions on Chinese solar panels in the United States, for example, have led to oversupply in other markets, accelerating renewable adoption in parts of Asia and Africa. In some cases, developing economies are moving faster than advanced ones.

But these shifts are uneven. They create winners and losers and introduce new tensions.

This is the result of decades of inaction in the face of well-understood risks — climate change, unchecked economic growth and largely unregulated technological change. When disruption runs unchecked, the political, social and economic consequences can be severe. Yet history shows that it often takes a crisis to force meaningful action.

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A reset without a plan

In some respects, this does resemble a systemic reset. Long-discussed changes in energy, trade and digital infrastructure are now being forced into reality.

But this is not a coordinated reset. It is a chaotic one.

Without strong institutions and a functioning public sphere, the same forces that drive change can also lead to fragmentation and instability.

The real test

Trump’s actions have removed the illusion that the current system can continue unchanged.

The vulnerabilities are now visible. The pressure is real.

This creates an opportunity — but not a guarantee.

Whether this moment becomes a turning point depends on how we respond. Do we use disruption to build more resilient systems, or allow division and short-term thinking to deepen the crisis?

Crises do not solve problems. They force decisions.

The question is whether we are still capable of making the right ones.

Paul Budde is an IA columnist and managing director of independent telecommunications research and consultancy, Paul Budde Consulting. You can follow Paul on Twitter @PaulBudde.