Why net migration surged under Albanese Government in January

The Albanese Government has been seeking to reduce net migration by significantly increasing the refusal of student visas and slower processing, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.

*Also listen to the audio version of this article on Spotify HERE.

DESPITE THE ALBANESE GOVERNMENT'S intent, net permanent and long-term movements in January 2024 hit an all-time January record of 55,330 compared to 21,500 in January 2023. But why?

The large increase in net permanent and long-term movements in January 2024 was consistent with the strong rise in the number of long-term temporary entrants in Australia in January 2024. That includes a 7,000 increase in bridging visa holders, 8,000 New Zealand citizens, 24,000 students, 7,000 working holiday makers, 21,000 skilled temporary entrants, 8,000 temporary graduates and 5,000 other temporary visa holders.

In addition, very few COVID visa holders left Australia in January 2024.

Table 1: Net long-term and permanent movements

For the seven months to January 2023, net permanent and long-term movements were 130,140 compared with 259,090 for the seven months to January 2024. In other words, net long-term and permanent movements for the first seven months of 2023-24 were 127,950 more than for the first seven months of 2022-23. This should be worrying the Government.

Two questions it will want to look into: What was driving the much higher level of net permanent and long-term in 2023-24 compared to 2022-23 and does this mean net migration in 2023-24 will be higher than in 2022-23 when net migration was 518,000?

Prior to the pandemic, net long-term and permanent movements were traditionally higher than net migration. This was due primarily to long-term and permanent arrivals changing their migration or long-stay intentions and leaving Australia for the long term at a relatively high rate.

The reverse has been the case since the pandemic and was certainly the case in 2022-23 when many more short-term arrivals extended stay for more than 12 months. But this does not necessarily mean that will also be the case in 2023-24. The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) does not publish up-to-date data on, for example, visitors extending stay, which would help with understanding this.

There are reports it is tightening policy on this. This tends to be confirmed by the fact that net visitor movements for the first seven months of '23-24 were 167,040 compared to 208,700 for the same period in '22-23.

Note that net migration data is understandably produced with a very significant lag compared to net permanent and long-term data that enables the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to allow for people to change their intentions. The ABS has announced it will in future publish more detailed data on net migration on a quarterly rather than annual basis, which should help with analysis.

Both major parties shirk responsibility for migration management

Ever since Kevin Rudd was shouted down for believing in a “big Australia”, no politician has wanted responsibility for long-term migration management.

Student Entrants

Students are the single largest contributor to net migration and hence the Albanese Government’s focus on slowing growth in students. In November and December 2023, there was a net outflow of students of 116,670. The Government would have been hoping a substantial portion of these would have been long-term departures.

In January 2024, there was a net inflow of students of 26,390, some of whom are likely to have been those who left in November and December 2023 returning in January 2024 (there was a net inflow of 17,170 students). If that was the case, the 26,390 net inflow of students in January 2024 may not have added much to the large net permanent and long-term inflow in January 2024.

Table 2: Net student movements (short and long-term)

The big month for student arrivals tends to be February (for both those who left short-term and returned as well as new long-term arrivals who add to net migration). The net inflow of students in February 2024 was 147,700, well above the net inflow of students in February 2023 of 119,350. We may see the impact of that when the ABS publishes the net permanent and long-term data for February 2024.

The key challenge for the Government is that while it has both tightened student policy generally as well as increased refusal rates, this may not be enough to get net migration down to the 375,000 forecast for 2023-24 and the long-term forecast of 235,000. It needs to do more, including in student policy but also elsewhere.

Work cut out for Government in managing net migration

The Labor Government is still doing its best to control the visa system mess left by the Coalition, with data indicating there is still much work to do.

Australian citizen movements

In January 2024, there was a net inflow of Australian citizens of over 400,000. While the vast bulk of those would have been associated with short-term visits, it is quite possible the 400,000 also includes expatriates returning to Australia. That would have contributed to the strong January 2024 net permanent and long-term movements. The ABS would have more detailed data on that.

What we don’t know at this stage is the extent to which these expatriates will remain in Australia for 12 months or more out of the next 16 months or will return overseas for the long term. That may be a crucial determinant of whether the Government’s net migration forecast reduced to 375,000 in 2023-24 is achieved.

*This article is also available on audio here:

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Dr Abul Rizvi is a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration and an IA columnist. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.