Australia’s major parties converge on net migration targets

Labor, the Coalition and One Nation are edging closer on net migration targets as political realities collide with immigration rhetoric. Dr Abul Rizvi writes.

AS MEDIA SCRUTINY of the immigration policies of Labor, the Coalition and One Nation intensify, the net migration targets of the three are converging.

Indeed, they are not nearly as far apart as was the case just a few weeks ago.

Labor’s net migration target

While we do not yet know what policy changes Labor will announce when Immigration Minister Tony Burke finally appears at the National Press Club, the Government has settled on a long-term net migration target of 225,000.

That is a significant step forward from Treasurer Jim Chalmers in 2023 saying in respect to the blow out in net migration:

“That isn't a government policy or a government target. It's not a floor or ceiling, it's not something the Government determines.”

Or former Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil refusing to include anything about immigration levels in the terms of reference for the Parkinson Review of migration policy. Or Tony Burke saying “there is no magic number” regarding net migration.

Tony Burke's immigration package must deliver the PM's net migration commitments and more

The Government is looking for ways to address the size of these unsustainable numbers, but with only a marginal impact to date.

While the blow out in net migration in 2022-23 was largely due to extraordinary policies introduced by the Coalition Government during and towards the end of COVID, Labor’s delayed response and reluctance to accept responsibility for managing net migration meant it remained higher for longer.

Part of the problem was Education Minister Jason Clare announcing a student National Planning Level (NPL) of 270,000 for 2025. That was completely inconsistent with Treasury’s net migration forecast, noting that students are the largest part of net migration.

Clare then announced the NPL would rise to 295,000 in 2026. A few weeks ago he issued a press release saying the NPL would remain at that level in 2027 but that the outcome in both 2026 and 2027 would be well below that level.

In a recent interview with Sky News’ Andrew Clennell, Clare explained that the student NPL was different to net migration, as if a higher student NPL would not contribute to keeping net migration higher than the Treasury forecast.

Clare’s higher student NPL naturally led to a rapid increase in student recruitment and offshore visa applications. International Education Assistant Minister Julian Hill responded by massively increasing student visa refusal rates — a totally unsustainable solution.

Hopefully, the Labor Government can come up with something more sensible when Tony Burke belatedly announces his much-anticipated long-term migration plan. That will replace Clare O’Neil’s migration strategy, which was going to fix Australia’s broken migration system but achieved only some minor improvements, as well as some changes that actually added to net migration.

There is speculation the Government is considering a UK-style ban on students bringing dependents with them. That would be poor policy as it could result in Australia losing slightly older but higher performing students doing longer degrees.

There are better, more targeted ways of managing the student and temporary graduate visa system to reduce their contribution to net migration.

Labor faces growing challenge on migration target

The Albanese Government has reduced net migration sharply, but further reforms will be needed if it is to meet its promised target by 2027-28.

One Nation’s targets

At the other end of the spectrum is One Nation, which over the past few months has had many different policies on immigration levels including:

A cap of 130,000 on visas (completely undefined). This is on the One Nation website, which to date still has not been amended to reflect Senator Pauline Hanson’s ever-changing position.
In an interview with The Noticer in March 2026, Hanson said she intends to “cap” migrant arrivals (not visas) at 130,000 to enable her to deliver net migration of negative 100,000 (she did not explain how she would legally “cap” migrant arrivals). Her negative 100,000 net migration target presumably includes her commitment to deport 75,000 overstayers and Senator Malcolm Roberts' promise to “deport” another 100,000 students and 100,000 temporary entrants. He gave no details on how he would do this.
In a July 2026 email from One Nation’s media person to Luke Kinsella at the Australian Financial Review, the 130,000 visa cap was narrowed to cover just permanent visas, skilled temporary visas and student visas. In 2024-25, that came to over 700,000 visas. Such a policy would effectively kill the International Education Industry and close down temporary skilled migration. The media adviser made no reference to net migration, nor did he understand the consequences of what he was saying.
In an early August 2026 interview with the ABC, Hanson “clarified” that her 130,000 number related only to permanent migration visas but did not explain how that would deliver her net migration target of negative 100,000.
In an interview with Andrew Clennell on Sky News a few days later, Hanson said her net migration target is 130,000, not negative 100,000. When asked to clarify what her permanent migration target is, Hanson became confused and flustered.

In an interview with Michelle Grattan on 11 August, One Nation’s David Farley said:

Pauline’s very respectful of what’s required of migration in agriculture, and […] very respectful of what’s required of migration in Farrer in particular […] So what we’ve arrived at is a position: the net [immigration] number, we agree 100% on.

And then we’re making sure that we’ve got the rotating migrants in our businesses, especially [the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme] and skilled nurses etc […] That’s now the party’s position as well.

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Asked to explain how much more than 130,000, Farley said:

‘Coming in and out, when I look right across Australia, it’s probably circa another 40,000 a year, on top of it.’

Farley was not asked about ongoing reports of exploitation and abuse of P.A.L.M. visa holders. Several labour hire companies that bring P.A.L.M. visa holders to Australia are facing prosecution by the Fair Work Ombudsman.

If Farley is right, then One Nation’s net migration target would be around 170,000 (possibly higher if health care workers are to be included). Indeed, on ABC's Insiders, Farley suggested his net migration target would be closer to 230,000. Inevitably, that was quickly slapped down by Hanson, even though she likely has no idea about how she got to her new 130,000 target or how it would be delivered.

It is extraordinary that after months of criticising skilled migration visas which have formal skill requirements run by independent skills assessing bodies, a skilled work experience requirement and a formal English language test, Hanson has said that the P.A.L.M. visa will be quarantined from cuts. The P.A.L.M. visa (and most parts of the working holiday visa) has no skills testing requirement, no skilled work experience requirement and no English language test.

The hypocrisy is stupendous just because farmers and regional employers want cheap, easily exploitable labour.

Canavan staggeringly wrong on working holidaymakers

Nationals’ Leader Matt Canavan’s recent statements about working holiday makers are so staggeringly wrong that they could even make Donald Trump blush.

Coalition’s net migration target

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has said the Coalition’s net migration “cap” (it’s not clear how the Coalition would cap net migration as there is no law that enables such capping) will be based on some derivative of the number of houses built.

The latest data on house completions is for the March quarter of 2026, which, in trend terms, was 44,328. The latest data on net migration is for the December quarter of 2025 at 56,613. Note that, on average, around 2.5 people live in a house in Australia; the December quarter is generally a low quarter for net migration and the completions data does not include demolitions.

Given the significant lags in availability of data on both housing completions and net migration, it is not clear how the Coalition would set and manage a “cap” for net migration. It could use housing approvals or commencements data to set its net migration target (not cap), but that has been trending up steadily and would suggest a higher level of net migration than the Coalition is likely to want from a political perspective. Housing commencements in the March quarter of 2026 were 51,009 on a trend basis — up by 11.7% on the March quarter of 2025.

Shadow Housing Minister Andrew Bragg told the National Press Club that he would set a net migration target of 180,000 per annum by reducing visas for students, working holidaymakers and skilled temporary entrants. While Angus Taylor has disowned this target, it is unlikely the Coalition will come up with a target that is much lower, especially if One Nation keeps increasing its target and the Labor Government has now set a target of 225,000.

Nationals Leader Matt Canavan has said he agrees with Bragg’s net migration target but wants working holiday visas (and most likely P.A.L.M. visas) to be quarantined from any cuts. He argues working holiday visas don’t impact net migration. That is wrong. In 2024-25, working holiday visas contributed 17.5% to net migration and P.A.L.M. visas likely 1-2%.

If working holiday and P.A.L.M. visas are to be quarantined, then reducing net migration to Bragg’s target of 180,000 would become significantly more difficult. The Coalition may then be forced into a net migration target not that much lower than the one announced by the Labor Government.

On the other hand, the Coalition and One Nation may discover more about ongoing reports of exploitation and abuse of P.A.L.M. visa holders and that several labour hire companies that bring P.A.L.M. visa holders to Australia are facing prosecution by the Fair Work Ombudsman. This may make them less enthusiastic about this visa.

As each of the parties learns more about individual visa types, including the economic and social dimensions of each visa type from various lobby groups, they will need to build that into their thinking on net migration targets. That is likely to further increase convergence of net migration targets.

Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul or Bluesky @abulrizvi.bsky.social.