Lessons from Optus and the political risks of relying on LEO satellite technology

A bold satellite plan risks repeating Optus-style failures unless Australia builds resilience, redundancy and real oversight into every layer of its digital infrastructure, writes Paul Budde.

THE GOVERNMENT’S Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation (UOMO) is an ambitious attempt to enhance mobile coverage across Australia by using low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite technology.

For a country the size of Australia, this approach makes sense. Yet as recent events have shown, relying on emerging technologies without proven resilience carries major political and operational risks.

Only weeks after the Optus outage that left hundreds of triple zero calls unanswered – and cost three Australians their lives – Communications Minister Anika Wells summoned the CEOs of Telstra, Optus and TPG to Canberra.

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The meeting was accompanied by new legislation establishing a Triple Zero Custodian within the Department of Communications, designed to provide stronger oversight and coordination of Australia’s emergency call system.

While this is a welcome step forward, it also serves as a warning. If mature, well-established networks can fail so catastrophically, what happens when we start relying on new, still-developing technologies like direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services?

Developmental uncertainties and political risks

Direct-to-device LEO satellite connectivity is still in its infancy. The technology holds great promise, but the current infrastructure lacks the scale and maturity to deliver reliable, universal service. Achieving broad coverage could take another five years, depending on how fast operators deploy their satellite constellations — timelines well outside the Government’s control.

If outages occur during this rollout, particularly in times of natural disaster or emergency, the political fallout could be severe. The Optus crisis has made one thing clear: when communication systems fail, public trust evaporates and accountability lands squarely on government, not technology vendors.

Dependence on a single provider

Right now, SpaceX’s Starlink remains the dominant LEO operator capable of near-national coverage. Relying heavily on one private, foreign-owned company introduces a new layer of vulnerability. As we have seen in Ukraine and Brazil, individual corporate decisions can directly affect national infrastructure. Australia cannot afford such dependency for critical communications.

The Government should therefore pursue partnerships with multiple LEO providers to ensure redundancy and competition — principles that have long been lacking in terrestrial telecoms and which contributed to the fragility exposed by Optus’s failures.

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Integration with the Universal Service Obligation

The introduction of the UOMO adds further complexity to an already outdated Universal Service Obligation (USO). The current USO framework, focused on fixed-line voice services, no longer reflects how Australians communicate or what they depend on. We have been talking about this for years, but beyond review promises nothing is happening.

In relation to LEO satellite services, these must be integrated carefully into a reformed system that guarantees reliability and interoperability.

We cannot repeat the mistakes made with traditional networks, leaving resilience to market forces or assuming that private operators will maintain sufficient backup capacity. The triple zero experience shows that such assumptions are dangerous.

A broader national infrastructure challenge

Telstra’s CEO recently called for a national plan for digital infrastructure and the Government’s steps this week point in that direction. But the plan must go beyond corporate priorities or emergency systems alone. Australia needs a comprehensive, independent assessment of its digital infrastructure: fixed, mobile, satellite and data.

This should determine whether current levels of investment are adequate to maintain resilience in the years ahead, particularly as telco margins tighten and the cost of upgrading infrastructure rises.

If traditional networks are already struggling to stay robust, introducing an additional layer of emerging satellite technology without strong oversight could compound, rather than solve, the problem.

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Policy recommendations

To make the UOMO a success and safeguard Australia’s mobile future, the Government should:

• Diversify partnerships: Engage multiple LEO satellite operators to ensure redundancy and reduce strategic vulnerability.
• Establish contingency plans: Create national backup communication systems for use during satellite or terrestrial outages.
• Clarify the USO framework: Define how UOMO fits into a modernised, unified universal service model.
• Incentivise technological development: Support research and development for D2D capabilities and local manufacturing where possible.
• Implement regulatory oversight: Empower the new Triple Zero Custodian – and potentially extend its remit – to include technical audits of emerging communication systems.

Conclusion

The Government’s LEO satellite initiative represents innovation and ambition, but it also carries new forms of risk. The recent Optus disaster has reminded us that reliability cannot be assumed and that critical communications require constant vigilance and independent oversight.

If Australia wants to lead in digital infrastructure, it must ensure that every layer, from fibre to satellites, is built not only for performance but for resilience. The success of the UOMO will ultimately depend not just on technology, but on the strength of the national frameworks that keep Australians connected when it matters most.

Paul Budde is an IA columnist and managing director of independent telecommunications research and consultancy, Paul Budde Consulting. You can follow Paul on Twitter @PaulBudde.