The new year offers opportunities for voters to make the world calmer and safer, but also for the opposite, writes Alan Austin.
WILL THE 2024 pattern of dissatisfied voters punishing incumbent governments be replicated this year?
Will Australian voters emulate their American cousins and turf out a successful progressive party after a malicious campaign of blatant misinformation? Or will it copy France and India, where regimes were returned with black eyes?
How will having a lifelong criminal grifter again leading the USA change the nation, and the world?
These are among the questions posed in another vital year for democracy.
The world survived 2024
As previewed here last February, many of the world’s high-population countries held national elections in 2024, making it the greatest year for democratic choice in history.
Established governing parties were tossed aside in the United Kingdom, the USA, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Syria, Botswana and Sri Lanka. Iranians voted for reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian following his predecessor’s sudden death in a helicopter crash.
Governments were returned in France, Belgium, Myanmar and the European Union but with diminished status and authority. Those in Japan, South Africa and India were forced into awkward coalitions.
Governments happily returning included Mexico, Moldova and Indonesia, but few others. Russia’s sham election unsurprisingly returned President Vladimir Putin — with 110 per cent of the popular vote.
Philosopher and global election specialist Charles Richardson analyses all elections on his website, The world is not enough. His review of 2024 was, on balance, more positive than negative.
He told Independent Australia:
‘We face big problems and it's by no means certain that civilisation will survive them, but voters are doing their best. Holding governments to account and changing them peacefully when necessary is what democracy is all about. On that score, 2024 was a success.’
Looking forward to 2025
Perhaps surprisingly considering the turmoil in Europe and the Middle East, Richardson remains optimistic:
‘There's nothing comparable that I can see to the risks that France and the USA faced last year (one successfully, one not). Of course, I worry about Australia since it's where I live; otherwise, perhaps Romania is the most troubling. I think Germany and Canada will muddle through okay.’
Parliamentary elections will be held this year in Canada, Chile, the Philippines, Singapore, Germany, Norway, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Argentina, Ecuador, Iraq and Australia. Presidential elections are scheduled for Ireland, Greece, Romania, Poland, Belarus and Croatia.
Racist Right set to advance?
While the extreme Right anti-immigration forces succeeded in recent months in the USA and Austria, they failed in France, Belgium and elsewhere. Richardson and other global watchers are monitoring developments in Chile, Argentina, Ecuador and the Philippines.
Says Richardson:
‘The problem is not the far-Right on its own, but the way centre-Right (and some centre-Left) parties have adopted its policies and rhetoric. The mainstream forces need to make a positive case for immigration, not give in to the forces of darkness.’
Focus on the Americas
There is little hope the USA will advance under the recycled Donald Trump. Already, some observers are predicting the end of the American empire.
One influential Trump adviser, Steve Bannon, has called another close confidant, Elon Musk, a “truly evil guy” and promised to have him “kicked out by the time [Trump] is inaugurated”.
In a reference to Musk’s intention to import highly-skilled foreign workers to replace Americans, Bannon demanded:
“Don’t come up and go to the pulpit in your first week here and start lecturing people about the way things are going to be. If you’re going to do that, we’re going to rip your face off.”
Musk had previously messaged his support for more immigration, which is anathema to hard-line Triumpists:
‘I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend.’
Concerns have been aired widely that the second Trump term will be even more destructive than the first. These are fuelled by his unhinged comments on annexing Greenland, conquering Canada by economic force, taking over the Panama Canal, nuking hurricanes, waging futile trade wars and his constant calls for physical violence.
Optimists respond that Trump is motivated only by personal greed and revenge and remains so fundamentally incompetent that anything he tries is doomed to fail.
Deception dominates Down Under
Australia’s pre-election situation mimics 2013 when the watching world was in awe at the Rudd/Gillard Government’s extraordinary economic and social successes. Due to constant misreporting by all the mainstream newsrooms, however, few voters understood the reality. Many chose to replace the developed world’s best economic managers with parties that soon proved to be the worst.
Polls today again show more voters believe the falsehood that the Coalition runs the economy better than Labor, confirming those profound deceptions are still in place.
Labor will be buoyed by the historic fact that no first-term administration has been dismissed at its first electoral trial. There are, of course, no guarantees this will hold.
One fresh element is the number of Independents up for re-election, whose role will be significant.
Charles Richardson doesn't think the Teal Independents have achieved much with their power, but believes first-term incumbents are hard to beat:
‘So far none of the campaigns running against them look particularly strong. I certainly don't think the major-party share of the vote is going to rise much; it may well drop further.’
The unexpected is always possible, however, as occurred last year in South Africa, Japan and elsewhere.
Richardson said:
‘Alas, the thing about surprises is they're hard to pick in advance. I'll be watching to see whether the recent internal carnage in the Greens has any effect on their voters and whether Labor suffers enough damage in its heartland seats to endanger them.’
Australia’s election must be held no later than May. Not long to wait now.
Alan Austin is an Independent Australia columnist and freelance journalist. You can follow him on Twitter @alanaustin001.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License
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