Politics

The old Fairfax #Ipsos poll trick

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Fairfax claim the Coalition have extended their margin over the last week (Image via @BevanShields)

Despite all the scandal, division, discontent and negative publicity, a Fairfax-Ipsos poll has the Government extending its two-party preferred result to 53-47. Bob Ellis calls BS.

THE SAME TRICK has been played.

Ipsos have rung mostly (69 per cent) landlines — that is, octogenarians. They have redistributed Green preferences as they were in 2013, when it was thought Abbott would not abandon Gonski, or reduce the money to the ABC or SBS. They have rung people on a holiday weekend, making sure few people were at home on the landline and many, many more were out, on mobiles, not tàking the call. And they alleged the Liberal vote went up, while the Turnbull vote went down.

The overall result is Labor 49 or 50, Liberals 51 or 50, even under this methodology.

This does not mean Shorten wins. Individual seats may reduce Turnbull’s majority to 2, or 4. I fear greatly the 1998 result, when Beazley won the numbers, but not the seats.

There is, of course, Ipsos’s methodology. Machines using 'random digit dialling' call humans (and fax machines) on Late Shopping Night and ask us Menzies octogenarians if we still vote that way. And so Labor’s vote may be 53 and its victory assured.

(Image screenshot ipsos.com.au/fairfax)

In the meantime, it is hard to find anything Turnbull has done right. Gay marriage will cost half a billion dollars. The motor industry has ended. He is selling submarine building to the Japanese, shipbuilding to the Spanish and our pasturelands to the Chinese. He is trying to send back to Iran persucuted Ba H’ai and Druze who may die there. He has just wasted $55 million sending refugees to Cambodia who do not like the place. He has a treasurer nobody would buy a used car from. He has a minister for immigration who refused to apologise to the Aborigines. He will find himself supporting Bronwyn Bishop and, as deputy, an idiot – Barnaby Joyce – whom Johnny Depp will oppose on many New England platforms, pulling clown faces, beside Tony Windsor.

What will happen if the current vote – 47 to 53 – goes Labor’s way on negative gearing on election day?

Can he keep him own popularity in quarantine from his policies? Is this possible.

It’s possible. It’s possible.

And we will see what we shall see.

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