Sussan Ley’s real opposition is her own party

Just one month into the job, Sussan Ley’s biggest battle isn’t with Labor, but with the conservative forces inside her own party, writes Callum Seán Murray.

BARELY A MONTH into Sussan Ley's tenure as Leader of the Opposition, the writing seems to be on the wall. This is not because she is struggling to cut through and resonate with the voters who have abandoned the Coalition in droves. It appears to be because the hard-right takeover of the Coalition cannot fathom seeing power shift more to the centre and thereby away from them.

Sussan Ley appears to be a small “l” liberal. She believes in free markets and less government regulation, individual autonomy, and a reduced role of the state in people's lives. That said, she also believes in a welfare state for those who fall on hard times, to help them become resilient and strive to achieve their individual aims independently once more.

Ley believes in climate change, understanding the positivist rigour of science, which has advanced under liberal institutions. This worldview is fundamentally shaped by her formative years as a young mother who achieved success against the odds.

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Ley's worldview resonates with large swathes of the public. If given the time, solidarity and a coherent message, Ley may be able to lead the Coalition to at least be competitive in coming elections. This is evident in the popular support that the Teals have been able to achieve and maintain in once blue-ribbon seats. Teals would have been ideal candidates for a modern Coalition. Instead, the Coalition’s perennial issue with women drove them to run as Independents, with those seats perhaps lost to the Coalition for the foreseeable future.

Ley has correctly said that all policy matters, both publicly and internally within the Party, are up for debate. She has acknowledged that they were smashed at the last election. However, on 27 June, Angus Taylor, Ley's rival for the party leadership, came out saying he opposes party quotas for women.

This is quite obviously a deliberate undermining of the leader, who has been strong in her position at the recent Press Gallery speech, stating that such decisions have not been made and require further debate. Quotas work and female representation is desperately needed by the Coalition if they want to be in government once more.

Another issue is that of net zero. MP Andrew Hastie has already said that he wants to get rid of it and the Nationals are fundamentally opposed to it. As Senator Matt Canavan mentioned, the nuclear policy was just a ploy so that nothing happens regarding renewables, while appearing as though something is being done.

It appears quite obvious that the Coalition has little chance of winning another election if they want to reignite the climate wars on an issue they resoundingly lost in 2022. Again, Ley has refused to commit to this until after internal debate and the 2025 Election review. It also briefly split the Coalition. What happens if the Liberals decide to stick with net zero?

The Murdoch press appears to be stronger in its critique than the left-wing press. Led by Sky News, where Peta Credlin has an explicit voice – and former PM Tony Abbott essentially has a voice, too – Ley is routinely criticised for being Labor-lite. They resolutely believe that the Liberals' loss at the most recent election was due to poor messaging, not poor policy that is out of touch with Australia.

Australia desperately wants vision during this time of geopolitical turmoil and the conservatives do not bring that. They want to double down on antiquarian energy policy, social policy and economic policy. Ley recognises this, but the “broad church” of her party does not.

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So, there are three pillars against her, all coming from her own side of politics. Needless to say, there is the additional factor of being a woman. It seems to be less explicit this time because she is the leader of the conservatives, but it remains subtly present from her own side. This is one thing she won't really have to worry about copping flak for from the Left. Moreover, there is a historical precedent that makes her job even harder.

First, the last moderate Liberal, Malcolm Turnbull, was torn down by the hard Right due to energy policy, as well as the vindictiveness of Abbott and his cronies, and Scott Morrison's ambition for the leadership. Turnbull was Prime Minister and had a reasonable chance of winning the 2019 Election. Ley, if all goes perfectly, is unlikely to be competitive until the 2031 Election. Six years is a very long time in politics.

Let's turn to Opposition leaders. During the Hawke/Keating era, the Coalition oscillated between Peacock, Howard, Peacock, Hewson and Downer, before returning to Howard. During the Howard Government, Labor went from Beazley to Crean, to Latham, back to Beazley and then to Rudd. During the Rudd/Gillard governments, the Liberals went from Nelson to Turnbull to Abbott. And most recently, Labor went from Shorten to Albanese. The historical record does not bode well for Ley.

However, many of these cases were due to poor polling and an inability to politically cut through with the public. Ley has not had the opportunity to do this — she is only a month into the job, after all. That said, the public jostling of those with leadership ambitions, namely Hastie and Taylor, by naming their policies prior to the post-election review, was largely absent in previous oppositions.

Where it was present, such as with Abbott and Turnbull, it led to the implosion of both of their governments and has arguably underpinned the mess that the Coalition is currently in.

If Ley has the potential to lead the country, the Coalition is unlikely to let her.

Callum Seán Murray has a Masters Degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Victoria University of Wellington. Callum resides in WA, works in public policy and has a keen interest in international affairs.