Strategic mastermind or agent of chaos: The method in Trump's madness

President Trump has caused much controversy through his apparent madness and chaotic leadership, but is there a method to his madness? Vince Hooper writes.

FEW POLITICAL FIGURES divide opinion as sharply as U.S. President Donald Trump. To his critics, his behavior appears erratic, reckless and destructive. To his supporters, he’s a shrewd disruptor, dismantling the “deep state” and exposing establishment hypocrisy.

The question remains: Is there a calculated method to his apparent madness, or is his leadership simply chaos in (e)motion?

The three main theories

There are three dominant theories about Trump’s decision-making:

The Russian asset hypothesis
Some argue that Trump’s policies and rhetoric consistently align with Russian interests, whether by design or accident. From undermining NATO to downplaying election interference, his actions often seem to benefit the Kremlin. While hard evidence of direct collusion remains elusive, critics point to a pattern of behavior that suggests either strategic alignment or unwitting complicity.
The chaos agent
Trump thrives on disruption. He upends norms, fuels media spectacles and keeps opponents off balance. His governance style isn’t about careful policy — it’s about performance. By creating an endless loop of crises, outrages and headlines, he forces the media to cover him obsessively, ensuring he remains the center of attention. This strategy keeps his base engaged but results in policymaking that’s reactive, inconsistent and often self-destructive.
Incompetence and narcissism
The simplest explanation is often the most accurate. Trump may not have a grand strategy at all, he might just be governing on impulse, gut reactions and personal grievances. His reliance on sycophants, his disdain for expertise and his tendency to prioritise loyalty over competence suggest his administration is less a Machiavellian masterclass and more a case study in dysfunctional leadership.

Dutton’s Trump-mania is a dumb political move

As Australians look on horrified at the chaos in America, the last thing they want is to emulate that in Australia.

Media manipulation: Chaos as a PR strategy

What’s harder to dismiss is Trump’s uncanny ability to dominate the media cycle. His scandals – many of his own making – overshadow substantive criticism and policy failures. Whether instinctive or calculated, this skill ensures that his narrative stays front and center.

His mastery of social media, soundbites and outrage-driven news cycles turns every controversy into a rallying cry. Each insult, indictment or international blunder becomes less a liability and more a testament to his defiance of the establishment — at least in the eyes of his supporters. In this sense, the “madness” may not be random at all but a deliberate tactic to crowd out competing stories and control public attention.

Policy wins: Chaos with a purpose?

For all the turmoil, Trump has notched tangible victories. His tax cuts, Supreme Court appointments and aggressive deregulation remain major accomplishments for conservatives. His trade wars, while economically disruptive, play well with his “America First” base. Even his hardline immigration stance – though legally and morally contentious – delivers the spectacle his supporters crave.

The question is whether these are part of a larger, coherent strategy or simply byproducts of a presidency driven by gut instincts and personal grudges. His critics argue that these “wins” are less about ideology and more about image: power plays designed to showcase strength and dominance, even when the long-term consequences are harmful.

Trump’s global game: Strategy or stumbling?

Beyond Russia, Trump’s coziness with authoritarian leaders – from North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán – raises further questions. Is this part of a geopolitical strategy or just an affinity for strongmen who flatter him?

His unpredictability on the world stage often leaves allies bewildered and adversaries emboldened. One day, he’s threatening North Korea with “fire and fury”; the next, he’s exchanging “love letters” with Kim. His public admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, even in the face of bipartisan condemnation, further fuels speculation.

If the goal is to project strength and shake up traditional diplomacy, it’s a high-stakes gamble — one that could either redefine global alliances or dangerously destabilise them.

How to avoid a Trumpian Australia

A new report shows that Australia may be able to avoid the chaos evident in Trump’s America but we are running out of time.

The psychology of Trump: Madness, ego or both?

Perhaps the most overlooked piece of the puzzle is Trump himself — his psychology. His decision-making reflects a deeply transactional mindset. Loyalty is prized above competence. Power is asserted through humiliation. Truth is malleable if it serves the narrative.

His craving for adoration – from his base, from the media, from world leaders – drives much of his behaviour. Whether it’s a rally crowd or a dictator’s praise, Trump seems to value applause more than outcomes. The “madness”, in this light, isn’t necessarily strategic; it’s an extension of his personality, where self-preservation and dominance override everything else.

The long-term impact: A new playbook for populists

Even if Trump’s approach is more instinct than strategy, its influence is undeniable. He’s rewritten the rules of political engagement, proving that scandal is survivable – even beneficial – if packaged correctly.

Future leaders, both in the U.S. and abroad, are watching. His fusion of reality TV theatrics, nationalist rhetoric and media manipulation offers a playbook for aspiring strongmen and populists. Whether he wins or loses, Trump’s legacy may not be in his policies but in the way he’s reshaped political behavior itself.

Is there a method to the madness?

So, is Trump a strategic mastermind, an agent of chaos or simply in over his head? The truth likely lies at the intersection of all these theories. His presidency is driven less by ideology and more by performance — a relentless pursuit of power, grievance and spectacle.

His “madness” may not follow a traditional political blueprint, but it serves a purpose: keeping him in the spotlight, rallying his base and redefining what leadership looks like in the 21st Century. The real question isn’t whether there’s a method to his madness; it’s whether American democracy can withstand it.

Vince Hooper is a proud Australian/British citizen who is professor of finance and discipline head at SP Jain School of Global Management with campuses in London, Dubai, Mumbai, Singapore and Sydney.