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Morgan Poll shows Labor in front

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This week’s Morgan Poll, the second since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another swing to the ALP. The ALP is now at 51.5% (up 2% since last Wednesday’s snap SMS Morgan Poll), ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

0107132PP

This is the ALP’s largest lead since December 2012, on the eve of Christmas, when the ALP was on 52.5% against the L-NP 47.5%.

The L-NP primary vote is 40.5% (down 2.5%) slightly ahead of the ALP 39.5% (up 1.5%). Among the minor parties, Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 11.5% (up 1%) — including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.

If a Federal Election were held today, the result would be a close ALP win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved strongly after Rudd’s return – up 12.5pts to 106 – the highest since mid-March 2013. Now 43.5% (up 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 37.5% (down 7.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

0107132Confidence

Analysis by Gender 

Analysis by Gender shows both genders again swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. Women now clearly favour the ALP (54%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (46%, down 3%) on a two party preferred basis, while men favour the L-NP (51.5%, down 1%) against ALP (48.5%, up 1%).

(Methodology: Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, June 28-30, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. For the full results go to the Roy Morgan website.)

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