The Liberals have struggled to make up ground because the Overton window among conservatives and right-wingers has shifted towards One Nation, writes Noah Reinhardt.
ONCE AGAIN, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) were able to continue their posturing as “anti-establishment” after their victory in the Secret Harbour by-election over Labor, who had held the seat since 1989.
This was pretty easy when Labor announced Georgia Tree – a former Woodside lobbyist as their candidate – amidst a large public push for a gas export tax.
While PHON is anything but "anti-establishment", their victory officially means that the Overton window has widened.
Some writers argue that it is Hanson’s rhetoric that shifted the Overton window in Australia. However, as defined by Joseph Overton, the man who came up with the theory, this is not how policy discussions arise.
According to the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, at which Overton was a senior vice president:
“The Overton window is a model for understanding how ideas in society change over time and influence politics. The core concept is that politicians are limited in what policy ideas they can support — hey generally only pursue policies that are widely accepted throughout society as legitimate policy options.”
In other words, it’s not politicians who deem what is politically appropriate to debate, but society as a whole, through local organisations, the media and so on.
It is not Pauline Hanson who has shifted the Overton window; society has — with help from the media.
It is not really a secret that the media has the power to shape public opinion and perception. Noam Chomsky wrote a whole book about it.
It feels as though the media is in the middle of manufacturing consent that Pauline Hanson will be the next opposition leader, or even the next PM!
But that’s not by accident.
There are a whole class of elite billionaires who are heavily vested in Hanson’s success.
Political donation information for 2025-2026 won’t be public until next year, when political donations reforms are set to kick in, but it is no secret that Gina Rinehart has paid for multiple private jet flights, including flights to Italy for a Dolce & Gabbana event, and even personally gifted her a plane.
Additionally, Rupert Murdoch’s media empire has likely seen the writing on the wall from the last federal election and has pivoted away from the floundering Coalition.
For the month of August, News24 (recently rebranded from Sky News) mentioned “Pauline Hanson” 102 times in articles and video headlines.
In comparison, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's name only had 23 mentions, and the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's name had 63 mentions.
Then there are individual members of the media like Karl Stefanovic, who has become increasingly right-wing in his rhetoric and on his podcast, going so far as to interview Far-Right activist Tommy Robinson (the interview has since been taken down), a figure who is closely aligned with Hanson.
While the media has certainly played a role in the PHON spectacle, it is important not to dismiss the ground support that the party has gained due to increased right-wing sentiment.
This support has manifested in rallies like the March for Australia, where demonstrators argue for limits to “mass immigration” and protecting free speech by repealing existing hate speech laws.
These protests are rooted in right-wing and nationalist ideologies, which is why it’s not surprising when extremist figures like Thomas Sewell, leader of the neo-Nazi National Socialist Network, who is originally from New Zealand, “hijack” these marches.
This ground support is also reflected in many polling results.
The Guardian's Essential September polling has One Nation recording a primary vote of 23%, which is actually a drop from the party’s peak at 28% earlier in the year.
However, the Liberal Party has had a complete downslide in the polls, currently at 26% after sliding down to 22% earlier in the year.
Meanwhile Labor’s figures have hovered around the 30% mark.
These demonstrations and polls illustrate how the Overton window has not shifted, but widened further to the Right, and as a result, has led Pauline Hanson and One Nation to utilise their already existing nationalist rhetoric to gain support.
Angus Taylor and the Liberals have struggled to make up ground because the Overton window among conservatives and right-wingers has shifted.
From an average March For Australia voter’s perspective, why would they vote for One Nation lite, i.e. the Liberals, when they can vote for a One Nation candidate backed by Pauline herself?
Sure, they say they will limit immigration, but from their perspective, they are partly the reason as to how we got to where we are. They are part of the establishment.
Plus, Hanson does not just want an Australia with fewer immigrants, but one that is predominantly white (or as Hanson would say, “monocultural”).
Though segments of Australia have become increasingly right-wing, to say there has been a complete shift amongst the whole of Australia would be misleading.
In fact, the students’ march against Pauline Hanson demonstrates that not everyone believes Hanson’s rhetoric is acceptable in public discourse.
Many Australians also want “left-leaning” policies such as sanctions on Israel, where only 19% of Australians hold a favourable view, and a gas export tax, which 61% of voters want implemented.
These statistics underline that Australia’s Overton window has widened – rather than moved – further to the Right.
Australia’s political landscape has created one elongated window, where PHON has gained nationalist support from the Far-Right, and in the centre-Right, the Liberal Party is left stranded.
Noah Reinhardt is a writer who focuses on politics, media and culture. He holds a Bachelor of Arts majoring in Politics and a Bachelor of Media and Communications majoring in Journalism and Non-Fiction Writing from Macquarie University.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License
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