The recent announcement of student visa cap numbers highlights the power play between the Education and Immigration departments, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.
SINCE THE DAY Education Minister Jason Clare announced he would introduce legislation to enable student caps, I have struggled to work out the rationale. The recent announcement of the student caps level now makes that clear.
The primary objective of the international education area of the Department of Education (Australian Education International or AEI) is to grow the industry, and maximise export and tuition revenue and the number of people employed by the industry. This is plastered all over the AEI website.
So why would the Minister for Education want to introduce such a controversial and obviously poor policy instrument that appeared to be designed to limit the size of the industry his department is committed to growing? Why buy a huge fight with each provider every year? Why make all the powerful leaders in the industry angry with you — leaders who can call on all sorts of other powerful people to support them?
The surprisingly high aggregate level of the caps now makes that clear. The caps are for two purposes.
First, wresting control over student numbers from the Department of Immigration. This is a power struggle that goes back to the mid-1980s. Education thinks Immigration is limiting the size of the industry it is committed to growing, while Immigration thinks Education doesn't give a damn about the quality of education delivered, the ability of students to get skilled jobs and the risk of huge numbers of students ending up in immigration limbo — a problem that Immigration must manage, not Education.
Second, the caps will enable Education to grow the industry much faster than compared to the levels that would result if current visa processing settings remained in place. Hence Jason Clare's demand for the Immigration Minister’s Direction 107 on risk rating providers to be abolished once caps are in place. The caps are about increasing aggregate student numbers, not cutting them.
The outcome of the battle on student visa processing arrangements will be crucial. Jason Clare will demand Immigration get out of the way and let each provider get the students the caps provide for.
Just as former Education Minister John Dawkins demanded control over student visas in the 1980s (and was effectively given that) until there was an overstayer blowout and Immigration Minister Robert Ray demanded his department again control student visas.
There are two problems with control over student numbers being held by Education.
First, Education has no interest in delivering the Government's net migration forecasts. Those are not Education's problem and if that is a problem for the Government, it's for Immigration to find other ways to deliver those forecasts (although Immigration may think those are Treasury's forecasts and not theirs).
Second, Education has no interest in minimising the number of students that get stuck in immigration limbo (for example, around 240,000 temporary graduates currently in Australia, many of whom will struggle to get PR) or applying for asylum (asylum numbers in Australia continue to grow strongly, particularly those who have been refused at both the primary and AAT stages).
Those are Immigration's problems, not Education’s.
How this struggle plays out over the next few months will be an issue not only in the next federal election but also in the future size and nature of one of Australia’s biggest industries.
But one thing is clear and is constantly ignored by the media due to the hysteria being pushed by the various International Education lobby groups.
The number of students and temporary graduates in Australia in 12 months (September 2025) will be substantially higher than the number of students in Australia currently. There are at this time around 800,000 overseas students in Australia when the students in the bridging visa backlog are included and around 240,000 temporary graduates (including those in the bridging visa backlog).
If the announced student caps are met, the number of overseas students in Australia may begin to approach 900,000. If current offshore student visa application and grant rates continue, that number may be closer to 850,000. That will depend on student completion and departure rates.
Hardly the financial disaster the industry complains about.
The number of temporary graduates may begin to approach 300,000. That is a number that will be worrying the Department of Immigration but won’t be a problem for the Department of Education since it's not their problem.
As the visas of these temporary graduates begin to expire, they will increasingly apply for asylum as they can no longer go back to a student visa. Again, not the Department of Education’s problem.
It will also mean net overseas migration is not falling as fast as Treasury has forecast.
Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.
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