Asylum seekers refused at both primary and appeal stages exceeds 50,000

For the first time in our history, the number of asylum seekers refused at both the primary and appeal stages and still not departed exceeded 50,000 at end March 2025.

The number refused at the primary stage and not departed exceeded 94,000 and the total asylum seeker cohort exceeded 121,000. All three numbers will keep rising until the Government develops a more holistic policy response.

(Data source: Department of Home Affairs)

In 2023, the Government allocated an additional $160 million over four years to speed up asylum processing at both the primary and appeal stages. The faster processing has helped to stabilise the backlogs at both stages. But it has meant that even more refused asylum seekers are stuck in immigration limbo, generally without work rights and living in the shadows of society (note the upturn in size of this cohort in Chart 1 from late 2023).

With over 2.9 million temporary entrants currently in Australia, especially a large number of students, temporary graduates, working holidaymakers and Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (P.A.L.M.) workers nearing the end of their visa options to remain in Australia, more will use the asylum route to extend their stay.

The source nation profile of asylum seekers in March 2025 very much fitted the student and P.A.L.M. visa profile. Primary asylum applications in March 2025 jumped to 2,131, up from an average of around 1,800 for the previous five months.

The future of Australia's asylum seeker system

The passage of controversial migration legislation has again brought into focus the future of the asylum seeker system in Australia.

The period from March to September tends to have higher asylum applications. So the higher rate may continue for the next few months and the total number of asylum seekers in Australia will grow well above the March 2025 record of over 121,000.

With the current faster processing and high refusal rates, thousands more will flow into the refused, not departed, cohort.

It means Australia will become more and more like Europe and North America, with a very large cohort of refused asylum seekers and increasing reliance on Trumpian type policies.

That may not bother either major political party at this stage, but in the long run, this will become a political issue with all the usual fear-mongering and clamour for Trump style policies. It’s better to address this as early as possible, as Australia had done until 2015-16, when Peter Dutton and Mike Pezzullo allowed the biggest labour trafficking scam in Australia’s history with little to no response.

While this is not an easy issue to address and would require enormous cost and political courage, the start of an electoral cycle is the best time to act.

Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.