Politics Analysis

As tourism explodes, visa due diligence is key

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Immigration Minister Andrew Giles (image via Twitter @andrewgiles)

The Department of Home Affairs must balance granting visitor visas and limit the misuse of this program to bypass offshore visa application processes, writes Dr Abul Rizvi

MOST VISITOR VISAS are designed to enable a short visit of three months or less, primarily for tourism, business or family visit purposes. While rapid processing is a key goal, high levels of visitors extending stay after arrival are now a major contributor to current record net migration, now approaching 500,000. This works against the rapid processing goal.

In 2022, visitors extending stay after arrival for more than 12 months contributed around 18% (69,430) to the then record net migration level of 386,970. This was much higher than, for example, permanent migrants who only contributed 14% (53,430). The biggest contribution was from overseas students at 57%.

The all-time record contribution of visitors to net migration was in 2019 at 100,280 or an astonishing 40% of net migration, some of this would have been the effect of international border closures although the contribution of visitors to net migration was trending up well before the pandemic. It was 60,810 or 24% in 2018.

A high contribution of visitors to net migration generally reflects a visa system that is not operating efficiently or is being undermined by people trying to bypass the proper offshore visa processes (often assisted by migration agents or lawyers, whether registered or unregistered).

In 2022-2023, visitor visa applications and grants increased steadily, backlogs were cleared, processing times improved but grant rates fell significantly. This is likely a response by the Department of Home Affairs (DHA) to rising concerns with the integrity of the visitor visa program, especially after the labour trafficking scam from 2015 until the pandemic and the rise in visitors extending stay long-term after arrival.

If the Government is to get net migration down to the long-term assumption of 235,000 per annum (assumed by Treasury under both major parties but not viewed as a target), management of visitor visas will be one area where policy will need to be tightened noting that overall visitor applications and grants in 2022-2023 were still well below pre-pandemic levels

Table 1: Visitor applications lodged by nationality

 

17-18

18-19

19-20

20-21

21-22

22-23

India

291,138

338,040

292,809

36,390

263,213

463,702

UK

635,200

595,707

489,622

13,955

158,601

463,405

USA

566,245

623,224

457,949

6,906

99,864

459,354

China

1,047,631

1,009,516

611,495

35,593

54,670

330,178

Singapore

238,753

236,015

156,089

4,604

96,979

220,678

South Korea

280,242

276,048

193,498

4,829

25,417

172,871

Malaysia

333,570

341,786

220,970

3,403

60,983

166,189

Japan

397,374

410,265

319,328

5,893

17,073

158,053

Vietnam

NA

NA

66,861

6,818

37,807

135,051

Philippines

106,773

119,978

92,873

9,525

49,456

117,595

Germany

178,306

179,567

141,486

2,407

31,997

116,973

Indonesia

114,419

122,349

80,913

2,533

48,434

116,958

Others

1,694,813

1,713,205

1,243.753

51,492

421,357

1,234,020

Total

5,884,464

5,965,700

4,367,646

184,648

1,365,851

4,155,117

 

Visitor applications lodged in 2022-23 were almost two million below the record year of 2018-19. Source nationalities that were still below their pre-pandemic levels included China, UK, USA, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Singapore and Germany.

These will rise again in 2023-2024, especially from China as group tours under the Approved Destination Status scheme resume with the thawing of the Australia-China relationship. India and Vietnam were the only major source nations with visitor applications well above their pre-pandemic levels in 2022-23.

Table 2: Visitor visa grants by nationality

 

17-18

18-19

19-20

20-21

21-22

22-23

India

268,194

280,344

222,785

29,502

200,325

357,038

UK

630,761

591,171

479,662

9,029

160,841

460,157

USA

564,874

621,954

455,029

6,323

97,628

456,565

China

954,264

938,136

544,817

38,844

44,348

271,550

Singapore

238,333

236,526

154,285

5,614

95,829

219,986

Sth Korea

279,329

276,798

189,910

7,388

24,912

172,648

Malaysia

332,224

337,481

213,531

3,622

39,960

147,838

Japan

397,242

410,259

317,479

7,200

16,953

157,809

Vietnam

NA

NA

56,001

6,124

25,167

113,592

Philippines

96,851

107,091

73,726

9,069

28,187

114,242

Germany

177,336

178,626

139,411

NA

32,662

116,444

Indonesia

106,747

112,762

72,337

2,592

32,106

116,912

Others

1,593,012

1,595,179

1,193,631

42,269

375,261

1,113,714

Total

5,639,167

5,686,318

4,056,603

167,576

1,131,890

3,818,495

 

In terms of visa grants, the UK, USA, China, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan and Germany were well below their pre-pandemic peaks. On the other hand, India, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia were above their pre-pandemic peaks. Grant rates for visitor applications overall fell significantly from 85.3% in June quarter of 2022 to 74.3% in June quarter of 2023.

Table 3: Visitor Visa Grant Rates

 

June Quarter 2022

June Quarter 2023

India

86.5%

68.4%

China

81.1%

77.9%

Vietnam

89.8%

77.2%

Indonesia

93.4%

83.9%

Philippines

87.2%

79.9%

Thailand

65.7%

59.8%

Nepal

83.3%

75.4%

USA

95.3%

92.7%

Sri Lanka

77.3%

82.2%

South Africa

92.0%

91.7%

Brazil

94.1%

85.8%

Mongolia

61.9%

55.0%

Fiji

83.1%

66.3%

Pakistan

57.9%

37.3%

Bangladesh

88.5%

57.3%

Other

83.0%

73.5%

Total

85.3%

74.3%

 

This may well be a response to the high rate at which visitors were extending stay after arrival noting that visitors from most nations are assessed against the ‘genuine visit’ requirement.

Unfortunately, the Government does not publish data on the different types of visas visitors are accessing after arrival and the process for accessing this data via freedom of information is both costly and slow.

The visas visitors could potentially access after arrival include:

  • Student visas, particularly to avoid the level of scrutiny applied to student visa applicants offshore;
  • Working holiday maker visas;
  • Temporary work visas;
  • Permanent visas; or
  • Asylum.

It is notable that some of the countries with the largest increase in refusal rates are also those with high rates of unmeritorious asylum applications including India, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Fiji. Unfortunately, DHA has not published data for Malaysia as well a range of other Pacific Island nations which have also been major contributors to unmeritorious asylum applications.

Going forward, DHA will need to find a balance between facilitating rapid entry of genuine visitors while limiting the extent to which the visitor visa program is used to bypass offshore applications for the appropriate visa and thus contribute to a high level of net migration.

Excessive tightening would lead to a backlash from the tourism industry, business lobby groups and migrant communities wanting their families to visit.

A tricky balancing act.

Dr Abul Rizvi is an IA columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.

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