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Morgan shows Labor in poll position to win Federal election

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Last weekend's Morgan Poll, the third since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another significant swing to the ALP. ALP is at 54.5% – up 3% since the previous week’s multi-mode Morgan Poll – ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis.

080713MorganPoll

The ALP primary vote is up 2% to 41.5%, ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 39.5% (down 1%).

Among the minor parties, Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 10.5% (down 1%). Within others, support for Katter’s Australian Party is 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved slightly – up 1pt to 107 – the highest since mid-March 2013. Now 43% (down 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36% (down 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

RoyMorganConfidenceRati g080713

Analysis by Gender shows both genders again swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. Women now clearly favour the ALP (57%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (43%, down 3%) on a two party preferred basis. Even men now favour the ALP (51.5%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, down 3%).

Methodology: This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 5-7, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,521 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.0% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” For more information on this poll see the Roy Morgan website.

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