Morgan Poll: ALP drops slightly but still leads

By | | comments |

This week’s Morgan Poll shows a small gain for the L-NP. with the ALP is down 0.5% to 52% on a two-party preferred basis, ahead of the L-NP on 48%.


The ALP primary vote is 38.5% (down 3%), ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41.5% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (up 1.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (up 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

Note: Calculation of the 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a much closer result: ALP (50.5%, down 1.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%, up 1.5%). This is virtually identical to the most recent Galaxy poll, which has the parties dead even on 50-50 (2PP).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

(Finding No. 5070 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 26-28, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,575 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (unchanged) did not name a party. For more information visit the Roy Morgan website.)

Creative Commons Licence
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License
Recent articles by
Australia's Family Court system failing to protect children

Six years of fighting Family Court battles to try and protect her son from abuse ...  
Now is the time for Australia to finally face up to its demons

Racial tension overseas is serving as a wake-up call for other countries to reco ...  
CQ University staff denied vote on pay-cut option ahead of massive job losses

Central Queensland University (CQU) Vice-Chancellor Professor Nick Klomp is ...  
Join the conversation
comments powered by Disqus

Support IAIndependent Australia

Subscribe to IA and investigate Australia today.

Close Subscribe Donate