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Morgan Poll: ALP drops slightly but still leads

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This week’s Morgan Poll shows a small gain for the L-NP. with the ALP is down 0.5% to 52% on a two-party preferred basis, ahead of the L-NP on 48%.

5070-vote-2pp

The ALP primary vote is 38.5% (down 3%), ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41.5% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (up 1.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (up 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

Note: Calculation of the 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a much closer result: ALP (50.5%, down 1.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%, up 1.5%). This is virtually identical to the most recent Galaxy poll, which has the parties dead even on 50-50 (2PP).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

(Finding No. 5070 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 26-28, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,575 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (unchanged) did not name a party. For more information visit the Roy Morgan website.)

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