Media that accused ABS of censorship and politicisation should apologise

Right-wing commentators and think tanks owe the ABS an apology after falsely accusing it of censorship and politicisation over migration data, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.

LAST MONTH, numerous right-wing media and think tanks accused the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) of censorship and politicisation when it issued this media statement warning against misusing net permanent and long-term movement (NPLT) data.

These media and think tanks argued that NPLT movements were virtually identical to net migration and therefore net migration was rising, not falling, as the Prime Minister promised. This allegation was used to fuel the recent anti-immigration marches.

Sydney radio shock jock Ben Fordham tried to whip up the anti-immigration frenzy by saying:

“Get a load of this every single day, Australia is now taking in 1,544 new people; 1,544 per day. These are the latest numbers. Now that's the equivalent of five fully loaded Boeing 787 Dreamliners, day after day, week after week, in the first six months of this year, we've had 279,000 arrivals.”

Fordham was referring to NPLT movements for the first six months of 2025. These totalled 279,660.

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Fordham was making the same mistake as Adam Creighton in The Australian, who said:

‘The Government promised to cut net immigration back to sustainable, pre-COVID levels before the Election, which would imply around 250,000 a year, where it had hovered for years. For this calendar year, it’s on track to exceed 550,000.’

The Institute of Public Affairs issued a media statement also making the same mistake in respect of 2024-25 NPLT movements, alleging that net migration in 2024-25 was around 457,000. The Daily Mail copied them, trying to whip up a frenzy of anti-immigration hate. Some politicians, political commentators and speakers at the anti-immigration marches followed suit.

Data on net migration in the March Quarter of 2025 (almost always the largest quarter for net migration) has now proved the ABS was right to warn against the misuse of NPLT movements data. Preliminary estimate of net migration in the March quarter of 2025 was 110,062 some 78,000 less than NPLT in that quarter. Net migration for the nine months to March 2025 was 260,597, some 106,000 less than NPLT for the same period.

This means net migration in 2024-25 would be around 352,000 if net migration in the June quarter of 2025 is identical to NPLT (which it won’t be — it will be less). Net migration in 2024-25 is on track to be at least 100,000 less than the figure alleged by The Daily Mail and the IPA. It is likely to be a similar level less than net migration in 2023-24.

That means net migration has fallen for two years in a row after significant (albeit belated) policy tightening of student visa policy the Labor Government inherited from the Coalition Government.

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Based on March quarter 2025 net migration data, it is likely net migration in calendar 2025 will be over 200,000 less than the estimate published by Adam Creighton in The Australian. Net migration in 2025 is likely to be around 500 per day less than the figure used by Ben Fordham. I am not sure how many fewer Dreamliners that is, but it would not be negligible.

We do need to discuss immigration levels in an open, honest and transparent way. There is a very real question of where net migration will settle under current policy settings and how that relates to the Prime Minister’s promise to get net migration down to pre-pandemic levels. But these media outlets and think tanks do not seem interested in an honest debate. They prefer to mislead and whip up hate.

When the ABS issued its media statement on the relationship between NPLT movements and net migration, it was simply doing its job to clarify that NPLT movements are not always the same as net migration. Indeed, there is often a substantial difference (see Chart 1).

For the ABS to be attacked in the way that it was does nothing for sensible debate on immigration levels. Dare I say it, the attacks were essentially Trumpian in nature.

If the media outlets and think tanks that attacked the ABS had any integrity, they would apologise for their allegations of politicisation and censorship and give a fulsome explanation to their audience that net migration has in fact fallen for two financial years in a row.

Will they do that? I doubt it.

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Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.