Russia's 'Waterloo' moment in Syria: From power play to withdrawal

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria could have heavy consequences on Russia's Middle Eastern power play, writes Vince Hooper.

THE UNRAVELLING of former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves far beyond the Middle East, delivering a significant blow to ambitions to restore Russia's great power status in the Middle East. Long celebrated as a master of geopolitics, Russia's missteps in Syria reveal the cracks in strategy — a cautionary tale of overreach and miscalculation.

Is this Russia’s Waterloo?

While it may be premature to declare Syria as Russia's “Waterloo”, the warning signs are clear. Russia's gamble in Syria, once touted as a masterstroke, now underscores the perils of unchecked ambition. It’s a sobering reminder that even the boldest strategies are vulnerable to the grinding realities of geopolitics.

Poker vs chess: A strategic miscalculation

Russia’s actions in Syria evoke the image of a poker player — calculated bluffs and high-stakes wagers meant to intimidate. But geopolitics often resembles chess, demanding foresight, adaptability and a grasp of the long game. In Syria, Russia backed Assad to the hilt, seemingly without a contingency plan.

Initially, bold moves succeeded in reasserting Russia as a Middle Eastern heavyweight. Yet the collapse of Assad's regime signals a failed endgame — proof that tactical victories don’t always lead to strategic success.

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Overreach on multiple fronts

Russia's dual entanglements in Syria and Ukraine starkly illustrate the perils of overreach. Historically, from Napoleon and Hitler to the Soviet and U.S. debacles in Afghanistan, stretching resources across multiple fronts has spelled disaster. For Russia, the Syrian campaign was meant to project power; instead, it has exposed limits.

Erosion of global credibility

Moscow’s inability to stabilise Syria doesn’t just hurt its Middle Eastern ambitions — it shakes its global alliances to the core. From Belarus to Venezuela, nations reliant on Russian backing may now reconsider Moscow’s reliability as a guarantor. This moment mirrors the U.S.’s post-Vietnam struggles when allies began doubting Washington’s resolve.

The stakes are particularly high with Russia’s potential loss of its military strongholds in Syria, including the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim airbase. These facilities have been linchpins of Moscow’s Mediterranean strategy and symbols of its global resurgence. Their loss would mark not just a tactical defeat but a symbolic retreat from great-power aspirations — eerily akin to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

A shifting Middle East order

The fall of Assad could trigger a regional reset with profound implications for Iran, Turkey and the Gulf states. Iran, reliant on Syria as a strategic corridor to Hezbollah, faces a weakened axis. Turkey and Gulf powers, emboldened, might seize the chance to reshape the region, further marginalising Russia.

Domestic repercussions: Cracks in the Kremlin

Back home, Syria’s unravelling adds to Russia's mounting challenges. Its political narrative hinges on projecting strength and invincibility, but this debacle, coupled with sanctions and unrest over Ukraine, may embolden critics.

While state-controlled propaganda cushions immediate backlash, prolonged economic strain could erode pro-war support bases.

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Lessons from history: Afghanistan’s shadow

The parallels between Syria and the Soviet Union’s quagmire in Afghanistan are striking. Both reveal the pitfalls of underestimating local resistance and overestimating the sustainability of external interventions.

As with the U.S.’s hasty exit from Afghanistan in 2021, Syria underscores a timeless truth: great powers that fail to account for local complexities risk global strategic humiliation.

Endgame and reflection

Whether Syria becomes Russia’s “Waterloo” is for history to decide. What’s certain is that this moment marks a turning point. The illusion of Russia as an infallible strategist has been shattered, replaced by a country increasingly exposed as a gambler whose bluffs can falter under the weight of reality. A good poker player to date, rather than a chess master.

For Russia, the costs are stark: diminished influence, fraying alliances and a retreat from global prominence. Syria’s collapse is a sobering reminder that even the boldest countries are bound by the unforgiving limits of ambition.

And as the dust settles, we are left to hope — not just for an end to bloodshed in Syria but for a broader reckoning among global leaders who continue to wager lives in their relentless pursuit of power. Over to Trump — because, in geopolitics, the next act is always just around the corner.

Vince Hooper is a proud Australian/British citizen who is professor of finance and discipline head at SP Jain School of Global Management with campuses in London, Dubai, Mumbai, Singapore and Sydney.