The two candidates for the U.S. presidency present vastly different paths for the bilateral relationship between Canberra and Washington, writes Akshit Tyagi.
FORMER PRESIDENT Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off in a debate on Wednesday 11 September in what could be their only debate before the Election. The initial exchanges set the tone for the 90-minute event, with Harris at times steering the conversation and provoking Trump with critiques of his economic policies, his refusal to acknowledge the 2020 Election results and his conduct at campaign rallies.
However, Australia was not mentioned at all during the debate, whether positively or negatively.
As the U.S. presidential race intensifies, Australia finds itself watching closely, contemplating how the outcome could reshape the bilateral relationship between Canberra and Washington. With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presenting vastly different approaches, the implications for Australia could be significant.
Trump's history of unpredictability
Australians have already seen how unpredictable Trump can be during the infamous phone call with former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in his first week as president in January 2017.
Trump criticised a refugee resettlement agreement brokered by the Obama Administration, calling it a “horrible deal” and labelling the conversation as one of his most unpleasant that day. Despite eventually honouring the agreement, Trump's initial reaction and his abrupt ending of the call left a lasting impression of turbulence and unpredictability in diplomatic relations.
Now, with the possibility of Trump's return to the White House, concerns in Canberra are mounting with anxiety surrounding the AUKUS deal, an agreement under which the U.S. will sell Australia nuclear-powered submarines over the coming decades. While the sale is not scheduled during the next presidential term, Trump's history of unpredictability raises fears about the future of this key defence arrangement.
Trump’s stance against free trade, coupled with his inclination towards escalating the U.S.-China trade war, is seen as potentially damaging for Australia, which is heavily reliant on international trade. His promised tariffs on imported goods could have a direct and adverse impact on Australia’s economy.
Kamala Harris criticised Donald Trump's tariff plans, including his proposal for broad duties of 10% to 20% on all imports. She referred to it as the “Trump sales tax”, describing it as a 20% tax on essential items that people need monthly.
Trump defended his tariff strategy, which involves imposing additional duties of 60% to 100% on China, reinforcing the trade war he began during his first term.
Trump said:
“Other countries are going to finally pay us back for all that we’ve done for the world and the tariff will be substantial.”
Will Kamala Harris take a different path?
Kamala Harris has emerged as a candidate with a more predictable and traditionally diplomatic stance towards Australia. Although she has not yet visited the country, Harris has repeatedly emphasised the importance of the Australia-U.S. alliance and has met with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on several occasions.
In their latest meeting during Albanese’s official state visit to the U.S. in October 2023, Harris highlighted shared values between the two nations, particularly on climate cooperation and gun control.
Harris has consistently praised key aspects of the alliance, including the AUKUS agreement and the Quad partnership, and has underscored the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region to U.S. security. She has also backed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an initiative aimed at strengthening economic ties and supply chain resilience between Australia and other regional economies.
Harris's approach suggests a continuation of the Biden Administration's policies, which have focused on reinforcing alliances, maintaining regional stability and countering China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.
While Harris may diverge from President Biden on some specific issues, such as trade or the conflict in Gaza, she is expected to maintain a steady course on matters that are of primary importance to Australia. Her active engagement in regional diplomacy, including representing the U.S. at key summits with Southeast Asian leaders, indicates a commitment to preserving a robust and cooperative relationship with Australia's neighbours.
As the U.S. Election draws nearer, Australia faces two starkly different visions for its most important international partnership.
On one hand, Trump's potential return raises fears of renewed unpredictability, economic disruptions and a retreat from cooperative climate efforts. On the other hand, Harris offers a more familiar and steady approach, rooted in alliance-building and shared democratic values.
For Australia, much is at stake in the outcome of this contest, with the future direction of U.S.-Australia relations hanging in the balance.
Akshit Tyagi has worked full-time as a business and financial journalist in India for Republic TV and part-time for other esteemed news media organisations. You can follow Akshit on X @AkshitTyagii.
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