June temporary entrant figures point to fall in net migration

While June temporary entrant figures point to a fall in net migration, other factors show that it may be too early for the Government to celebrate yet. Dr Abul Rizvi reports.

RECENTLY RELEASED temporary entry stock data shows the number of temporary entrants in Australia at end June 2024 fell to 2.69 million from 2.83 million at end March 2024.

While the June quarter is usually a weak one for net temporary entry movements, the decline again points to falling net migration. But is it falling as fast as the Government has forecast?

While the bulk of the decline in temporary entry stocks was due to 66,000 fewer visitors (which was to be expected as visitors tend to leave for the Australian winter), there were also significant falls in:

students from 671,359 at end March 2024 to 608,262 at end June 2024;
working holidaymakers from 183,668 at end March 2024 to 173,216 at end June 2024; and
other temporary residents on employment visas (mainly on the former COVID visa) from 171,013 at end March 2024 to 145,112 at end June 2024.

Government struggling to hit net migration target

The Albanese Government has been too slow in reversing the Coalition's migration policy settings, which could complicate a federal election win.

These declines were offset by significant increases in

skilled temporary entrants from 153,991 at end March to 168,725 at end June;
temporary graduates from 199,897 at end March to 216,494 at end June;
and bridging visa holders from 286,293 at end March to 297,372 at end June.

Net permanent and long-term movements for April/May 2024 were 47,710. The June estimate is not yet available but is likely to be a small positive or perhaps even negative.

Students and temporary graduates

The decline in students in Australia during the June quarter of 2024 is likely to have been driven by a combination of students:

leaving permanently (most likely students from China);
going home for the end of semester one and likely to return for semester two;
applying for another student visa or a temporary graduate visa but being caught up in the bridging visa backlog (these are mostly students applying onshore on the basis of a Vocational Education and Training course after having arrived to do a Higher Education course); or
securing a temporary graduate visa in June.

There will be three factors that will drive up student visa holders in Australia by end September 2024:

continuing students returning to Australia;
a large increase in students securing an offshore student visa in June 2024 will arrive; and
onshore student applicants who are currently in the bridging visa backlog (including former COVID visa holders) who will secure student visas in July/August 2024;

The number of student visa holders in Australia at end September 2023 was 664,178. That will likely be marginally exceeded at end September 2024 but will not have grown as quickly as this did in the September quarter of 2023 when it grew by almost 100,000.

Rise in overseas students ringing alarm bells

Australia’s overseas student industry continues to ring alarm bells about the Government’s tightening of overseas student policy.

In other words, the rate of growth in overseas students is slowing. But contrary to assertions by industry lobbyists, it is not going to go into reverse while the Government aims for long-term net migration of 235,000 per annum.

The other major development is the ongoing rise in the stock of temporary graduates. Since international borders re-opened at the start of 2022, the stock of temporary graduates has increased from 95,259 to 216,494 at end June 2024. The June quarter and the December quarter tend to see strong growth in temporary graduates. In the June quarter of 2024, these grew by over 16,000.

In order to reduce growth in people stuck in immigration limbo, the Government will want to see that growth stabilise and start to reduce in 2025. But further policy changes are likely to be required to deliver that outcome, possibly further narrowing of eligibility for temporary graduate visas to students who have undertaken courses in long-term demand in Australia (such as fewer low-quality business courses and more high-quality courses in health, education and I.T.).

The need to address quality issues in Australia’s International Education industry is becoming overwhelming.

That would also help the Government deliver its net migration forecasts. There is also a need for the Government to tighten working holidaymaker policy if it is to hit its net migration forecasts. That is especially the case as the Government has introduced new visa initiatives in 2024-25 that will add to net migration.

But a cut in the permanent migration program as proposed by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton would leave more people stuck in immigration limbo.

Despite Dutton's blustering, a long-term net migration policy is essential

With a 2025 election edging closer, the race is on for the Albanese Government to reduce net migration to its forecast figure.

Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.