Invisible no more: How drone warfare exposes AUKUS’ strategic blind spot

As drones and quantum sensors redefine the rules of modern warfare, Australia’s costly AUKUS submarine program risks becoming an outdated investment in a world where stealth no longer exists, writes Vince Hooper.

THE WAR IN UKRAINE will almost certainly be remembered as the first great drone war — a conflict where cheap, adaptable unmanned aircraft have redefined how battles are fought and won.

The skies above the front lines are no longer ruled by jets or attack helicopters, but by small, whirring machines – kamikaze drones, reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and surveillance swarms – which now decide who lives, who dies, and who can move safely across open ground.

For Ukrainian and Russian soldiers alike, the front has become what troops grimly call the “kill zone”: a place where every movement risks detection. Drones have turned the battlefield into a network of eyes and weapons operating around the clock. Nothing moves unseen for long.

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The collapse of traditional advantage

Until recently, conventional warfare depended on heavy armour, artillery and the massing of troops to break through enemy lines. But drones have changed that equation. Tanks and mechanised columns that once symbolised the military might now make easy targets for cheap, expendable drones costing a few thousand dollars. These flying devices detect, track and destroy vehicles with precision — often without human pilots within range of danger.

The result is a levelling effect. Smaller units equipped with drones can inflict disproportionate damage on larger, better-equipped forces. Commanders are adapting by dispersing troops, hiding equipment and relying on smaller, agile, drone-enabled teams. Armoured manoeuvres that once depended on surprise are now neutralised by persistent aerial surveillance.

Artillery has become vastly more lethal. Drones provide real-time targeting, turning old Soviet howitzers into precision systems. A Ukrainian battery can spot, fire and adjust within seconds — accuracy unthinkable only a decade ago.

Fluid front lines and constant visibility

The front lines in Ukraine are now far more fluid than in any modern European war. Instead of static trenches or entrenched positions, both sides probe, retreat and reposition under the watchful eyes of drones.

It’s an aerial chess match: each move on the ground countered by an unseen move above. First-person-view (FPV) drones act as flying grenades, while larger UAVs coordinate entire battles. Both armies depend on real-time intelligence that blurs the line between surveillance and combat.

Electronic warfare (EW) has become as vital as artillery. Both sides jam, spoof and hijack enemy drones in a constant contest for control of the airspace. Soldiers now carry portable jammers the way their grandfathers carried rifles. The ability to disrupt or survive the drone swarm determines who lives.

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The moral and strategic fog

The ethical and legal challenges are immense. Kamikaze drones capable of semi-autonomous targeting sit uneasily within the laws of war. Who bears responsibility when an algorithm misidentifies a target? How do we ensure accountability when lethal decision-making becomes automated?

But beyond ethics, there’s a deeper strategic question, one that matters profoundly to Australia. If the cheap, connected drone is now the most decisive weapon in modern war, what does that mean for countries investing billions in stealth platforms designed to stay hidden?

AUKUS and the problem of visibility

Australia’s AUKUS partnership is built on a vision of future warfare that values stealth and undersea dominance — in particular, nuclear-powered submarines that can operate undetected for months. Yet the very notion of “undetected” may soon be obsolete.

Advances in drone and quantum sensing technologies are rapidly undermining the assumptions that make stealth viable. Already, high-altitude and satellite-linked drones can scan vast ocean areas using synthetic aperture radar, magnetometry and infrared sensing capable of detecting subtle anomalies such as heat signatures or wake patterns left by submarines.

More ominously, China, the United States and several European nations are investing heavily in quantum radar and quantum magnetometers — systems theoretically capable of detecting even the smallest magnetic fluctuations caused by metallic hulls or reactor emissions, from orbit. When coupled with drone swarms and AI-assisted data fusion, this could render oceans – once the ultimate hiding place – increasingly transparent.

If that happens, Australia’s planned nuclear submarine fleet – projected to cost between $268 billion and $368 billion over the next 30 years – could be overtaken by technology before the first vessel is even delivered. The first Australian-built submarines are not expected to enter service until the 2040s, possibly later. Submarines are built on the principle of invisibility; drones and quantum sensors are built on the premise of total detection.

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As the Israeli military visits death and destruction on Gaza, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia enters its third year with a significant loss of focus by the international community.

The strategic trap

The lesson from Ukraine is not just about drones themselves, but about how rapidly technology can shift the balance of power. What looks cutting-edge one year can become vulnerable the next. Drones have democratised warfare — making it cheaper, faster and harder to dominate.

By contrast, AUKUS locks Australia into one of the most capital-intensive defence projects in history, based on technologies that may not be survivable in the 2040s. While Canberra focuses on submarines, the future of warfare is moving toward autonomous systems, networked drones, electronic warfare and cyber resilience — domains where smaller, faster innovation cycles matter far more than tonnage or reactor power.

There’s a risk that Australia is preparing for the last war, not the next one.

The need for agility and regional realism

Rather than betting everything on AUKUS hardware, Australia would be better served by investing in flexible, rapidly scalable technologies — unmanned underwater vehicles, autonomous surface drones, quantum communication networks and domestic AI research for defensive applications. These tools can be deployed and upgraded at a fraction of the cost of nuclear submarines.

Moreover, Australia’s security challenges are regional, not global. Drone warfare, electronic interference and cyber disruption are far more likely threats in our immediate neighbourhood – from the South China Sea to the Pacific – than nuclear-powered fleet confrontations. A balanced defence posture should reflect that reality.

A cautionary conclusion

Ukraine’s drone war offers a brutal but vital lesson: in the age of drones and quantum sensing, invisibility is a myth. Every army, navy and air force will soon operate under a permanent digital gaze.

If AUKUS ties Australia to a stealth doctrine that no longer holds, we may find ourselves with the world’s most expensive targets — not its most capable deterrents.

The future of warfare will belong not to the biggest machines, but to the smallest and smartest networks. Drones, satellites and quantum sensors are already rewriting the rules of strategy.

Australia would do well to read those rules before they are written for us.

Vince Hooper is a proud Australian/British citizen and professor of finance and discipline head at SP Jain School of Global Management with campuses in London, Dubai, Mumbai, Singapore and Sydney.