After an extraordinary surge in offshore student visa applications from the Philippines in 2022-23, these have now completely collapsed in 2024.
This is having a major impact on Vocational Education and Training (VET) providers, many of whom now face financial ruin, but will also have an impact on long-term visa management.
Chart 1 highlights this extraordinary development.
The massive increase in offshore student applications from the Philippines was driven by COVID-era policies for an accelerated return of overseas students. Policies such as unrestricted work rights and fee-free applications. Those encouraged not just students, but also education agents and education providers, particularly VET providers, in the Philippine market.
Around 90% of offshore student applications from the Philippines were for the VET sector.
The offshore visa approval rate for the Philippines in 2021-22 was around 85%. This fell to around 80% in 2022-23 and then around 40% in the first seven months of 2024. Not surprisingly, offshore student applications from the Philippines fell from a peak of 2,942 in March 2023 to 396 in July 2024. Note that visa fees are not refunded if an application is refused.
This reflects the first two phases of a temporary visa boom. The initial boom and then the policy tightening. Less discussed is the third phase — the aftermath of having to manage the visa holders stuck in Australia.
Philippine students in Australia
The stock of students in Australia from the Philippines grew steadily before COVID from around 4,300 at end of 2011 to around 17,300 in March 2020. This fell back during COVID to under 10,000 at end 2021 as some students departed while others moved onto various visas such as the special COVID visa, temporary graduates, temporary skilled and permanent residence.
But the stock boomed to around 35,500 at end July 2024 plus possibly another 10,000 in the bridging visa backlog.
Most of these students have paid a fortune in fees to get them on a pathway to permanent residence. That pathway starts with completing a course in Australia and then securing a temporary graduate visa. The number of Philippine nationals on a temporary graduate visa has increased from less than 200 at the end of 2011 to 2,400 in March 2020. There was a slight decline during COVID as some may have departed while others moved onto different visas.
After COVID, the number of Philippine nationals on temporary graduate visas increased rapidly to around 7,200 in July 2024. Given the stock of Philippine students in Australia of around 45,000, far more will move onto temporary graduate visas than will depart or move towards permanent residence over the next 1-2 years. A key period may be early 2025 when a large number of temporary graduate visas will expire.
There has been an increase in onshore temporary skilled visas granted to Philippine nationals from 1,889 in 2021-22 to 5,858 in 2023-24. This is a positive development but it is not clear if this increase is related mainly to existing skilled temporary visa holders securing further skilled temporary visas or temporary graduates securing skilled temporary visas.
Temporary graduates securing skilled temporary visas (or state nominations) will need to accelerate significantly if we are to avoid a further increase in Philippine nationals applying for asylum (see Chart 2).
Asylum applications from Philippine nationals have increased steadily in recent years. There is likely to be a surge in asylum applications from Philippine nationals in early 2025 when temporary graduate visas for a large number of Philippine nationals expire.
Conclusion
There are two main conclusions from this:
- student visa policy tightening will significantly impact VET providers in 2025 irrespective of student caps. Many reliant on the Philippine market will face financial ruin; and
- unless there is a significant acceleration in Philippines students and temporary graduates securing skilled temporary visas or state nomination, many will find themselves without visa options and be faced with either having to depart or apply for asylum. Early 2025 may be a key period for this.
Dr Abul Rizvi is an Independent Australia columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.
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